The Fleet Positions Itself For War Part II

In going through the morning reading, one of the first things I read was the post by Thomas Barnett that declared All systems "go" for war. Dr. Barnett has excellent instincts, but in my study of the Iranian issue, I simply could not see a scenario for war unfold by either the United States or Israel until after we get public statements by the Chinese. I posted some comment to that effect on Dr. Barnett's blog, and thank goodness that blog is moderated, because 10 minutes later I realized the conditions for war are indeed being met. China, and Japan have weighed in.

This is not trivial, this is the first time we have seen global coverage of Chinese and Japanese government concerns to the rising tensions surrounding Iran, and it comes as a result of Iranian military posturing, not Israeli posturing. This was one of several conditions we had previously identified, because it is an economic consideration towards war that Japan and China respectively represent the #1 and #2 importer of oil from Iran. It is very important to note what they are saying and what they doing.

Last Friday, Iran delivered a letter of response to a package of incentives proposed by the six countries -- the permanent UN Security Council members Britain, France, China, Russia and the United States, as well as Germany, aimed at persuading Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment activities.

Liu confirmed Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi had received a letter from his Iranian counterpart, Manouchehr Mottaki, which said Iran was ready to hold constructive negotiations as soon as possible with the European Union and the six countries.

Also consider events. China and India both have increased their domestic price of oil through tweaking their subsidies, but also important is the upcoming restrictions on driving we will see leading up to the Olympics as China attempts to paint the sky blue. These adjustments, combined with continued reduced oil use in the US, will increase oil stockpiles in August while production remains constant.

Last week we discussed the negotiations package offered to Iran and why the details are important. Iran appears to have accepted the negotiated package, and with that comes a condition that simply didn't get enough attention in the media.

The Foreign Office in London tonight confirmed to The Times that the major world powers would refrain from any further action against Tehran at the UN Security Council if Iran refrained from any new nuclear activity, including the installation of more centrifuges for uranium enrichment. This offer was part of an incentives package offered to Iran last month by the US, Britain, Russia, China, France and Germany.

It was “part and parcel of any pre-negotiations which would be limited to six weeks to prepare for the opening of any formal negotiations,” the Foreign Office spokesman said.

We see this as a built in time table, essentially a loose countdown towards war. During the "process" Israel is expected to show restraint while the six party talks attempt a diplomatic solution. We expect this six week time period of pre-negotiations will begin soon, if not already, because another important condition was met today.

Notwithstanding months of partisan wrangling in Congress over the Iraq war, the Senate on Thursday handily confirmed Gen. David Petraeus as the top commander in the Middle East and Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno to replace Petraeus as the chief military officer in Iraq.

A lot of attention was given to the missile launches during the Iranian military exercise over the last two days. A brief word about this. A couple weeks ago we noted that the Iranians had moved ballistic missiles in to a launch position. We speculated it was a bluff, but we were also unaware of the Iranian military exercise. The thing is, the media had the story about the ballistic missiles being moved to launchpads, and everyone apparently knew about it when it happened. When we first heard about the missiles being moved to the launch pad, our first question was whether the missiles were fueled. The fuel used for ballistic missiles is very corrosive, meaning a missile that is fueled either must be launched within a few weeks or the fuel will have to be drained and replaced.

With everyone (including the Times citing defense sources in Israel 3 weeks ago) knowing the missiles were moved to the launch pads, clearly the early warning system for an Iranian ballistic missile launch is effective. If you are watching naval exercises, air power demonstrations, or missile launches and believe you are observing the metrics towards war, you've been distracted. The metrics are not military, they are political. For example:

The fact that the terrorists have failed to strike our shores again, does not mean that our enemies have given up. To the contrary, since 9/11 they've plotted a number of attacks on our homeland. Like members standing up here, I receive briefings on the very real and very dangerous threats that America continues to face.

The most important lessons learned after 9/11 was that America's intelligence professionals lacked some of the tools they needed to monitor the communications of terrorists abroad. It's essential that our intelligence community know who our enemies are talking to, what they're saying, and what they're planning.

I can't say I'm excited about this bill, but I can live with it, perhaps literally. Following an attack on Iran by Israel, Iran is not going to find much success trying to sink the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) in the Indian Ocean, but they might have a great deal of success killing you and me here in America. We don't believe for one second that Iran is going to abide by the Geneva Conventions and not intentionally support the killing of American civilians in North America. If war happens, they are as likely if not more likely to attack here than in the Gulf. Whether you like it or not, there was absolutely no way the Democrats, including Barack Obama, were going to leave the possibility open that Israel attacks Iran, and the US gets hit by terrorist attacks inside the US while the FISA bill wasn't passed.

This is a key point. The Democratic Party in mass shifted from a core position. This doesn't happen without keen awareness to some strategic condition. Clearly some outside force has produced conditions which are far outside the scope of national politics, because nothing short of insight and real concern for political survival would Democrats find inspiration for such a massive policy shift with virtually no explanation to its core constituency. This is a major reason, and to Democrats scratching still their heads, an obvious sign we believe that Israel has demanded a time table.

We believe we are in the middle of a twelve week period of diplomacy, what will be the last chance for diplomacy before when we believe Israel will take action. Once the six week negotiation period passes, and the real negotiations begin, the clock is ticking. This time period is not an accident, there is a reason why the six week time period was insisted upon by several nations of the six party talks, including China. The six week period insures that war will not break out during the Olympics, and with this condition established heads of state will be in attendance.

You think tensions are high now, you haven't been reading the blog very long. As we noted in early May, the Navy has been positioning itself for an extraordinary level of readiness this fall, and it is obvious enough that even the damage to the USS George Washington (CVN 73) does little to total battle force availability. With the return of the Nassau ESG to port today, the Atlantic Fleet doesn't have any strike groups on deployment, while the Pacific has 3 Carrier Strike Groups and 1 Expeditionary Strike Group at sea. The Lincoln CSG, currently in the Indian Ocean, is to be replaced by late August, which is also around the same time the Kitty Hawk currently participating in RIMPAC 2008 is expected to move to Washington state to prepare for decommissioning.

The Reagan Carrier Strike Group which is currently in the Pacific, and the Peleliu Expeditionary Strike Group which is currently in the Persian Gulf, will both remain at sea well into the fall months. More notably, the time for the next round of naval strike group deployments has come, and the Navy is about to deploy a whole bunch of ships, with a massive reserve trained up and available. As chance would have it, the Europeans will be putting large numbers of naval forces to sea over the next few months as well.

Final thoughts.

In the Middle East this year Ramadan begins on Sunday, August 31st at sundown and will continue for 30 days until Monday, September 29th at sundown. It is worth noting there is a new moon on August 30th and September 29th. We still see Turkey as a big wild card, Israel can do an end run around the United States through Turkey, and it wouldn't even be the first time this year. This is not trivial, most people are unaware that Turkey has the second largest standing Army in NATO, second behind the United States. It is an experienced, well trained Army with excellent equipment.

Would Iran really be stupid enough to attack a NATO member with the largest standing Army in Europe, who is already on the border and has the means to completely cut off Iran's northern flank? When one considers the dynamics between the US, EU, Israel, and Turkey, don't dismiss the wild card role Turkey still might play in any scenario. After all, no one saw the Syrian incident coming through Turkey until after the fact.