We do not believe it will make much of a difference, but hope to be wrong. Navy Times is discussing the new Maritime Security Patrol that Task Force 150 is establishing in the area of the Gulf of Aden between Somalia and Yemen. We look forward to seeing whether this will make a difference.Cmdr. Jane Campbell, public affairs officer at 5th Fleet, said the patrol area could be described roughly as a rectangular shape over the Gulf of Aden, with a constant allied naval presence. “The number will vary, but we’ll have ships on station,” she said. “This is not a long-term solution; it’s a short-term, focused operation.”Convoy information in support of the Maritime Security Patrol Area can be found at Noonsite, who is cooperation with Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) is looking for all information available to better coordinate patrols.
Along with surface patrols, shore-based aircraft, shipborne helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles also will keep a weather eye on the Gulf of Aden.
Click the image above for a high resolution look at 2008 piracy in the area as of April 24, 2008. Stopping piracy will not be easy. Even if we assume the rectangle described is only 200 by 50 nautical miles large, that is still 10,000 square miles of water to cover. Figure 5 coalition ships, and maybe, possibly 5 US Navy ships and between the 10 vessels each ship is responsible for 1000 square miles for each ship. Even spacing the ships within the grid, response time at 25 knots within a grid would likely be measured in hours not minutes.
While aircraft and UAVs can assist in scouting, without a change in the RoE we don't see this making a significant impact to the patrol beyond scouting, so early detection will be their only true value to the program. Early detection, particularly in regards to attacks that originate from pirate motherships, has proven difficult in the past.
Update: Eagle1 has more, and very useful information on the sea lane being established.
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