China Forces the Diplomatic Option

Like we always say, SCO runs through Shanghai, not Moscow. Put the cold war on ice, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is not the WARSAW PACT.

China and several Central Asian nations rebuffed Russia's hopes of international support for its actions in Georgia, issuing a statement Thursday denouncing the use of force and calling for the respect of every country's territorial integrity.

A joint declaration from the six-member Shanghai Cooperation Organization also offered some support for Russia's "active role in promoting peace" following a cease-fire, but overall it appeared to increase Moscow's international isolation.

Now Russia has choices, they can change tone and start talking to the rest of the world instead of at the rest of the world, or they can also shrug it off and dig a hole to isolation. Without any help, the suggestion that Russia can wave the magic pipeline is an empty threat, Russia needs the revenue as much as Europe needs the oil.

There are still several ways Russia can accomplish its goals without disconnecting itself from Europe and the west, but the first question is whether they want to. The second question is whether the United States will push for ideological resolutions instead of strategic resolutions.

The political atmosphere surrounding this is still a mess, and with Europe and the US taking a hard line regarding the potential independence of the two breakaway provinces, it is time for everyone to recalculate. Is Georgia better off without the 2 provinces? Neither has been part of the national economic system anyway, and what we are talking about here has more to do with geography than governance.

Russia needs the west to accept the independence of two breakaway provinces pretty bad right now, too bad there is no government for the west to recognize. Good news for Russia though, serious cooperation in regards to Iran while they stand up a couple of democratic governments could go a long way towards Russia achieving its objectives. Democracy doesn't happen over night, if Russia sets up a couple democracies, which could take a year, and works with the west over that time period towards stopping Iranian nuclear development, I'd say there is a good bargain for both sides to be made.

Yes, I would trade recognition of Russia's military actions as legitimate and recognize two new independent democracies to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons. That is a diplomatic deal, a strategic choice, worth making.