Observing the Outbreak of War In Georgia

With the distraction of the Olympics, Georgia has apparently attempted to crack down on separatists in South Ossetia. Like all grand plans for war, the plan has not gone as expected. The swift Russian reaction by both air and ground implies surprise has not been achieved, if anything one might observe that Russian intelligence programs in Georgia is very healthy, and Russia is who achieved surprise.

Several blogs have offered both analysis and are tracking the reporting as the news breaks. This post by Thomas Barnett is a great early primer for many to shape a historical and strategic view, and Robert Farley is following the news as it flows in over at Lawyers, Guns, and Money. As of this writing the news report we recommend is the thorough analysis put out this afternoon by the New York Times, where this tidbit has slipped through.

Pentagon officials said late Friday that the Georgian government had officially requested assistance in airlifting home the approximately 2,000 Georgian troops now in Iraq. The request was under review, and standard procedures would indicate that the United States Government would honor the request, officials said.

This is the first sign of DoD mobilization for the military events unfolding in Georgia, and simply saying it out loud is sure to bring in a political perspective. Cutting through the spin, the Air Force has been asked and may be ordered to conduct a major airlift from Iraq to Georgia of all 2000 Georgian troops that have been part of the coalition forces in Iraq. That is certainly one twist in events we intend to keep an eye on. The politics of using an air base in Iraq to support an airlift into a war zone outside Iraq is the stuff the political spinners dream about.

Day two of the conflict featured a massive increase in Russian air power, including the use of Russian Strategic Bombers hitting Air Bases and other targets in Georgia. The number of sorties increased by about 4 fold, and we expect will continue to increase. We note this in the NY Times article, which implies escalation is likely.

On Saturday, Russia notified Western governments that it was moving elements of its Black Sea fleet to Ochamchire, a small port in the disputed enclave, a senior Western official said.

A senior Georgian security official said that Russian ships were moving toward Georgia’s Black Sea Cost in order to land ground troops, and that 12 Russian jets were bombing the Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia, another breakaway region that hugs the Black Sea.

Last night the Russian Air Force reportedly devastated the Georgian Black Sea port of Poti. Local language (unverified) internet reports suggest both the Slava class cruiser Moskva and the Kara class cruiser Kerch are part of Russian naval group that deployed, and the Kilo class submarine Alrosa was reportedly not in port. The number of and types of other Russian naval vessels has not been reported. Speculation by some local sources suggests an amphibious operation may be in the works. Specifically there are some local internet reports of activity among the three Ropucha class LSTs. We want to reiterate that these reports are unverified, but note that because of where these unofficial internet reports are coming from, they may be credible.

Several implications here. The use of air power in the Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia and if Amphibious forces are soon to put to sea, the implication is Russia may be looking to opening a second front. The movement of the Black Sea Fleet towards Georgia could be a tactical move to cut off supply to Georgia, and nothing says 'turn around' faster than a Kilo SSK guarding the port entrance. These types of major events give implication that Russia is moving towards a campaign of consolidation, rather than a peacekeeping action. The next few days will tell the story, but it looks like we may need to redraw some border lines in that region in the near future.

Georgia is not well known by Americans, and while we can hear the stories, read the history, and understand the events it is still very difficult to follow events of war in foreign lands. Luckily, it is easier to follow war from home in the 21st century than any other time in history, and all you need is a little advice. This is our advice.

Use the map in this post as a cross reference with Google Earth. Zoom in on Georgia and follow the press reports. While not all places are on the Google Earth map, most are, and one can use markers to track air strikes and where ground forces are based on press reports. Using about twenty press reports this morning we were able to track air strikes and where the ground combat is taking place, thus get a good feel for how early events are unfolding. These are amateur tools using open source media information, but if you were a professional, you would already have the tools to track the action.

We note that despite a number of bombings very near the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, it is reported that the pipeline has 'miraculously' survived undamaged. Such miracles in war are hardly so accidental. As the pipeline is a strategically important aspect of the Georgian economy, but is also a very important part of the regional economy, it is just one more odd detail worth keeping an eye on.

While we are aware of US Navy activity in the Black Sea, we will let other news sources discuss specific forces in the region. It is enough to say the US Navy is there, with exactly the kind of capabilities one would want the US to have in a confusing, evolving war where one country may feel obligated to protect themselves from an attack by sea. Should Georgia open up with anti-ship missiles against Russian targets at sea, or if either side should engage in unrestricted
war at sea in the eastern Black Sea, the US Navy does not have the forces in the region yet to protect or support unarmed commercial vessels. Our advice to commercial shipping is to run west, those waters to the east are not safe.