Signs of Expanding Russian Ambitions

It has been a long day in the office, and while I admit to being behind in the current events, particularly if the topic is politics, I couldn't get passed how good an article Navy Times published today regarding the conflict in Georgia. These guys did a great job, and while one would typically think we would focus in on the various naval centric events reported in the article, we found ourselves in discussion about some of the other details reported. Ponder the impact of this detail as reported, because the meaning is not trivial.

Russia’s ambassador to Moldova, meanwhile, said the country’s leaders should be wary of what happened in Georgia and avoid a “bloody and catastrophic trend of events” in the separatist, pro-Russia region of Trans-Dniester. The ambassador, Valeri Kuzmin, said Russia recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia because of “Georgia’s aggression against South Ossetia.”

Someone has foot in mouth disease. Russia is not a serious actor if they want to make threats to other countries. If this is going to be Russian policy, there is no other option than to take them on now instead of waiting until the execute their ambition in the form of military power. If that leads to cold war II, so be it. As we have already said, the US and Russia are not equals except under certain circumstances, and a cold war isn't one of those circumstances. The way we see it, Russia is in position to accomplish their goals with South Ossetia and Abkhazia without disconnecting themselves from the west, but signals of another military intervention sends a clear message the ambition doesn't stop at peacekeeping.

Putin is apparently not as smart as some have credited him, because expansion of threatening rhetoric right now is a losing hand for Russia. It really isn't very difficult for Russia to make a compelling case in support of South Ossetia and Abkhazia independence, if and only if that is the sole objective. However, Russia doesn't have a case at all if the ambition of Russia extends beyond those two provinces.

If you have been waiting for Russia to make a mistake, ambassador Valeri Kuzmin just did it. The center of gravity in geopolitics always centers on the highway of commerce, which is the sea. While the Persian Gulf has been that sea lane in play for the last few decades, it is time to add the Black Sea to the list, and with the Iranian rhetoric heating up, the Caspian Sea isn't far behind.