Update on Russian Naval Activity

RussiaToday, an English language news site with questionable credibility in the past, had an update a few hours ago regarding Black Sea Fleet activity.

The Russian Navy has confirmed that a section of its Black Sea Fleet is en route to the Georgian coastline. The task force includes a missile cruiser. Military officials insist the operation is to help refugees and is not part of an operation to blockade Georgia.

According to a source in the Russia’s defense ministry, three assault ships were earlier sent to the same destination.

Previous information had indicated that both the Moskva and the Kerch were both out of port as of yesterday afternoon. Latest reports confirm the second group consists of the warships Moskva and Smetlivy, and they have made port in Novorossiisk. Smetlivy is a Kashin Mod class destroyer. While the Reuters report makes it sound like the Russian Navy is not near Ochamchire, Georgian officials suggest ships are there. Essentially, things aren't zero sum at sea, and there are multiple naval groups at sea including apparently off the Georgian coast.

This confirms the Moskva, but not the Kerch we discussed yesterday. That may imply the Kerch is part of operations elsewhere. It is unclear what three assault ships had been sent earlier, nor what escorts may be with them, but we believe our earlier analysis of large troop transports and not amphibious ships was accurate.

There are three older Alligators and four Ropucha class assault ships in the Black Sea Fleet. Several media reports are reporting a Georgian government statement that 4000 troops were part of the first group of troop transports sent to Ochamchire, and have already landed. Even if all seven ships were fully loaded they could not carry 4000 troops, thus we do not believe the ships sent were the LSTs in the Black Sea Fleet. Some combination of a large commercial ship and LSTs? Perhaps.

Yesterday some Ukrainians looking down into the Ukrainian port had an entry regarding a lot of activity around three Ropucha class assault ships. It is unclear if this is part of the second naval force supposedly dispatched, and there have been no updates regarding those ships. One thing is clear, the Ukraine isn't excited about being a forward operating naval base for "Russian aggression" against Georgia. Ukraine has threatened to block any ships in the Black Sea Fleet helping in the Russian campaign from returning to port.

It is unclear how much this would effect Russian naval operations, but it could be a factor logistically. While Russia has been working its Black Sea Fleet in exercises for the last year, there is a legitimate question whether the Russian Navy can keep their ships logistically supplied at sea for long periods. Where will the Russian logistics ships get fuel for the naval force? Could this be done in Adler? While this won't prevent Russia from moving forces into Abkhazia, it could create logistics problems for the Russian Navy. One thing is clear, this war has exposed Russian weaknesses in the Black Sea with its basing situation in Sevastopol.

Despite Russian claims otherwise, the Russian Navy is interdicting maritime traffic to Georgia. This is one such report.

The Navy of the Russian Federation today appeared to have taken a further escalatory step in its aggressive war against Georgia. “The Russian Navy is imposing an illegal blockade on Georgia,” said Alexander Lomaia, Secretary of National Security Council of Georgia, late on Saturday. Over the last 48 hours, Russian naval vessels have turned back several ships bound for Georgia with humanitarian supplies.

“Today,” said Lomaia, “the Russian Navy intercepted Lotus I, a Moldovan-flagged merchant vessel carrying wheat.” The ship was turned away, denying the Georgian population an essential food shipment.

It would appear official government reports that there is not a blockade taking place would be false. For the most part, Russia has been consistently honest about what they are doing, they have not hid that Russia intends to essentially secure Abkhazia and South Ossetian. However, the Russian press quoted a Russian government official stating there would be no blockade of Georgia, a blockade is an act of war and Russia is engaged in peacekeeping operations. Well, turns out maybe the limit of Russian peacekeeping is rapidly approaching with the withdrawal of Georgian troops from South Ossetian, and the phase for war is about to begin.

Russia clearly controls the ball now. The question is how far will the push, and will the world do anything once it is clear Russia decides to push beyond the red lines.