5th Fleet Focus: September in Somalia

September began with news that pirates were demanding $8.2 million ransom to free two Malaysian tankers and a Japanese-managed bulk carrier. Malaysia responded by sending three ships; the 2,270 ton Frigate 2000 class KD Lekiu (30), the 1,650 ton MEKO 100RMN class Patrol Ship KD Pahang (172), and the Newport class Landing Ship KD Inderapura (1505), ex-USS Spartanburg County (LST 1192). The next day news reports alerted that a French yacht was hijacked by Somalian pirates and taken to the semi-autonomous northern region of Puntland, specifically the port of Eyl.

The next day, Hassan Muse Alore, the minister for minerals in northern Somalia's Puntland region, told Reuters that the Egyptian dry cargo ship Al Mansourah had been hijacked and also taken to Eyl, where it was claimed 10 ships were being held for ransom as of September 4th. Hassan Muse Alore was in Eyl to confirm the existence of arms on an Iranian ship that had previously been captured by pirates.

On September 6th, it was announced the French couple taken hostage by pirates on the yacht Carre D'as IV are being held for an extraordinary random sum of $1.4 million AND the return of the 6 Somali prisoners taken by French Commando's earlier this year. There was also an announcement that pirates are using the French yacht as a mothership for launching piracy on regional traffic.

However, this past Sunday, coalition forces fought back. The Norwegian tanker Front Voyage on its way to Singapore when the alert crew of 25 Russians and Filipinos spotted a pirate boat approaching the vessel. The crew, which had reportedly trained to fend off pirates, used water cannons to keep the pirates from climbing up the tanker while waiting for the arrival of HDMS Absalon (L16). News reports indicate the pirates were captured by the Danes, and transferred to an US Navy warship.

The latest news is that a South Korean ship has been taken by pirates. The seizure of the South Korean vessel brings the total number of vessels being held by Somali pirates to 11, all of which are thought to be held in the port of Eyl. Over 150 crew members are currently being held hostage. Also noteworthy, a Greek vessel narrowly escaped being captured after assistance from coalition forces, no word regarding what happened to the boat with a machine gun that attacked the Greek ship.

This is the Somalian piracy activity reported in just what has been reported and observed by Eagle1 the first 10 days of September, and doesn't include the refugee problems that plagues Somalia as people flee across the Gulf of Aden to Yemen.

According to UNHCR, almost 24,270 people have made the dangerous voyage across the Gulf of Aden this year aboard smugglers’ boats. More than 177 people died, and 225 people remain missing. At the same time last year, there were 9,153 arrivals, 267 dead and 118 missing.

Coalition naval forces have established what is called a Maritime Security Patrol Zone to help protect maritime traffic through the regions dominated by piracy, but clearly results from the first two weeks have been mixed, at best. On Monday, the Canadians will turn control of Task Force 150 over to the Danes, who will lead the coalition naval force from HDMS Absalon (L16). The Canadians did a good job, but were overwhelmed by the increased frequency of attacks.

Around 20,000 ships per year, an average of around 55 ships per day, travel through the Gulf of Aden. At 55 ships per day, this news report can help us calculate the costs Somalian piracy is adding to the global economy.

A dramatic increase in piracy off the coast of Somalia and a ten-fold increase in insurance premiums has sent the cost of sending ships through one of the world's busiest transport routes, soaring, shipping experts said yesterday...

Insurance companies have increased premiums for sending a cargo shipment through the Gulf of Aden to about $9,000 from $900 a year ago.Meanwhile, the pirates, who use speed boats and are armed with rocket propelled grenades and assault rifles, have become increasingly sophisticated in their attacks. Ships are typically held for at least three months before a ransom, which averages $1 million, can secure their release.

Lets estimate insurance costs have risen $8000 per ship. By my math the cost of Somalian piracy is now $440,000+ a day, or $160+ million dollars a year, just in insurance costs alone. The Times article is very informative, and goes on to note the trends.

“It's not just a growing frequency, there is also a growing cost of piracy, kidnap and ransoms,” he said. “The size of the ransom, depending on the vessel and its cargo, is growing. The time these things are lasting is also increasing. Before, they were quick in and out events. Now, the bad guys are a bit more sophisticated.”

The evolution in technology used by pirates isn't just communication coordination and improved weapons, but appears to also include new techniques and capabilities to get aboard ships. Also noteworthy, there are lessons from action taken by the French earlier this year, hijacked members of crews are being moved off the ships and taken to a pirate hideout in the Xaabo mountains.

Piracy in Somalia appears to be specific to Eyl, a city of around 20,000 in Somalia's Putland state, near the Hafun peninsula. Pirates have attacked 50 ships so far this year, and have successfully hijacked more than 30 ships.

As we have highlighted in the past, pirates claim to be acting in a coast guard role protecting the fishing community of Eyl, and there is some truth to that. For all of the problems in Somalia, it is without question one of the best fishing locations in the world. A full boat can haul catches that run 50% to 150% more than fishing in other areas. Fishing may sound trivial to those who don't know much about it, but it is a major industry worldwide. Earlier this year, Russia, who does not recognize Norway's exclusive right to the 200-mile economic zone near Spitsbergen, deployed warships to protect the Russian fishing industry working in that region.

Illegal fishing and dumping are part of the local problem of Somalia, but piracy and replaced fishing as the local industry. With an average ransom of $1 million per ship, the 30+ ships hijacked to date are potentially worth $30 million to the local economy, while the entire fishing industry of Somalia today is estimated around $1.5 million. $1.5 million is nothing, 4-5 boats fishing illegally in the hot spots of the Somalian coastal waters, assuming those ships overcome the risks of piracy, could easily haul that much in yellowfin tuna and shark alone.

The piracy issues off Somalia will get worse, not better. Ransoms are improving the capabilities of pirates, and there is clearly a political issue behind the decision process of the United States in dealing with policy. This is speculation, but we tend to believe this is a "ghosts of the father" issue with George Bush, who in the last days of his administration doesn't want to involve the United States in a Somalian military incident the way his father did. It is also very unlikely any European nations, who are taking the blunt of the economic loss due to piracy, would contribute.

But we could be wrong, and perhaps action is brewing behind the scenes. With Malaysia sending the LST KD Inderapura (1505), with the Danes taking charge of Task Force 150 with HDMS Absalon (L16), and the Iwo Jima ESG heading into the region with the Peleliu ESG already in the region, the number of troops at sea is on a steady increase. There is a clear target for action on land, the city of Eyl, and there appears to be a clear secondary target as well.. the secret pirate mtn base. By my math that is 2 Marine battalions with at least two coalition partners, and SNMG-2 is expected to come through the region soon.

No, we don't expect military action against Eyl, just highlighting what is possible. $440,000 per day is a lot of money, but even $12+ million a month of global economic costs doesn't rise to the level that demands military action on the ground. However, if piracy continues to increase, and insurance rates continue to go up, the cost to the European economy (if not the global economy) could elevate the problem to that point.

The next step that we see is a shoot first, kill as many as possible RoE change to send clear messages that piracy will not be tolerated. It may not be politically correct to say, but it is time to kill as many of the pirates as possible, and those who don't die during military action can make their case to the sharks off the Somalian coast. At least under that theory we can fill the sharks bellies with pirates instead of refugees for a change.