An Armada Masses Off the Horn of Africa

I was encouraged to read Nitin Pai's article in the Mail, because an expert voice on the Indian position regarding piracy in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean is a lot harder to come by in the Indian press than you might think.

But as far as tracking what the Indian Navy is doing since being allowed to commit forces to operations off Somalia, the details are a bit fuzzy. INS Tabar (F44), a modern Talwar class frigate, might be stealthy by warships standards but MK 0 eyeballs have been watching the ship operate in the region for a few weeks now. The Times of India confirmed the presence of INS Tabar (F44) on Friday, and suggested reinforcements are on the way.

Sources said another warship has now been dispatched from Mumbai to replace INS Tabar, a Talwar-class guided-missile stealth frigate, which was already patrolling the Gulf of Aden to protect "Indian interests" in this "strategic choke point" of the Indian Ocean Region.

The presence of helicopters and elite marine commandos, trained for covert combat missions, on board the warships tantalisingly points to the possibility of a mission being mounted to rescue the 18 Indians on board the Japanese-owned Stolt Valor, which was hijacked by Somali pirates on September 15.

That Times article by Rajat Pandit is excellent by the way, because it goes into some detail regarding what India can do based on international law, and what India is doing to conform to the law. A very good read.

Quietly I have been hearing over the weekend that negotiations between India and Somalian government officials have been proceeding quickly, and may either be close to completion or already completed. That is one reason why when the Naval Open Source Intelligence blog linked this article (from a source I'm not very familiar with btw), while I'm a bit skeptical... this is very possible.

Indian warships with guided missiles, which were dispatched from Mumbai, have begun patrolling in the Gulf of Aden near Somalia, according to sources in the Indian Navy in Mumbai.

The warships, said to be six in numbers, have been sent to the Gulf of Aden to protect Indian merchant vessels from pirates passing through the Gulf of Aden, even though the fate of the 18 Indians sailors on board the Japanese-registered ship “Stolt Valor” in Somali waters still hangs in balance.

The Indian warships have on board helicopters and elite marine commandos, trained for covert operations. The Indian naval presence in the Gulf of Aden also signals to the world that India has now the military might as well as the capabilities to hit hard at any enemy target, Balaji Rao, a defense analyst, told Arab News.

Six ships? If that is accurate, then that would explain why so many were scratching their head when early press reports suggested only the INS Ganga (F22) was being deployed. The Indian Navy doesn't have a reputation of doing anything small in the Indian Ocean, nor undertaking naval operations without logistics, so this report could be accurate. We will have to wait and see, but six ships would be a significant Indian naval operation, perhaps the largest military operation since the 2004 tsunami.

The big issue that has the Indian government bothered is the domestic pressure on the government by shipping industry unions. There are tens of thousands of Indian sailors worldwide, and they were threatening to strike unless the government took action. That is exactly the kind of economic problems India is looking to avoid, and with the problem in the Indian Ocean there have been some pretty critical quotes on the subject in the Indian press. Some go straight to the point, asking the purpose of such a large Navy for India, if in fact the government is 'too weak' to use it. It is a legitimate question actually, the Indian Navy is 21 destroyers and frigates, 24 corvettes, and is not only building 2 aircraft carriers, but 8 more destroyers and frigates AND 8 more corvettes.

The Indian Navy currently has 156 ships and 35 under construction, ranking it in the top 5 in the world in total numbers. In terms of numbers of modern ships, the Indian Navy will soon have more aircraft carriers, more amphibious ships, more major surface combatants, more submarines, more ships in the flotilla, and a larger auxiliary than any Navy in Europe, including Britain, Russia, and France. True they will not be as advanced in terms of technology, but a decade of buying American could change that in a hurry for India.

We will have to wait to find out whether this report is legitimate and just how many ships India has sent to Somalia, but with the arrival of SNMG-2, the numbers of naval ships off Somalia is rising considerably. South Korea will be sending its own delegation to Somalia to work out its own legal assessments with the Somalian government, and determine whether they will be sending naval power to the region. If it is decided South Korea will send naval power, it won't take long, the KDX-II destroyer KOKS Dae Joyeong (DDH 977) is currently in Egypt with a a Cheonji-class oiler. While Malaysia had sent three ships to the Somalian coast last month, it is unclear if those ships have returned home or not.

Regardless, as you start adding up the ships, one can start to count up between 20 and 30 naval ships pretty fast. France has 6 ships, SNMG2 is 7, the Danes and the Dutch each have a ship, and the Royal Navy has at least two warships that could be there. The US Navy has one Carrier Strike Group and one Expeditionary Strike Group in the area, and don't forget the Russians are coming. India has at least 1 ship there with at least 1 more ship coming, potentially six more. The USS Barry (DDG 52) could be sent down once the USS Leyte Gulf (CG 55) arrives in the Med. This is before adding in South Korea with two nearby, or Malaysia with three there very recently, and don't forget Singapore has a LST in the Persian Gulf.

When you do the math, this is slowly developing into the most significant international naval operation since the 2004 tsunami. Should be interesting to observe.