Greetings

Greetings to all. My name is The Custodian; Galrahn our host has graciously (and not without a well-deserved suspicious look or two) offered me a chance to contribute to the community and the discussion here at ID. Since this is my first post, let me state a couple of things up front. First of all, I'm remaining anonymous not because I'm a serving member of the armed forces or because I fear for my day job. I've chosen to do this in order to minimize the amount of 'baggage context' that folks running off to hunt up the various screeds I've posted on the internet while tired, drinking, or in weird moods would bring. I'll tell you the following things before I start. I'm sure you can find some stuff if you really care - but you shouldn't, I don't think. Beat me about the shoulders straight up if you think I'm straying.

First, (as you should expect of someone Galrahn has let into his yard) I won't lie to you. Second, if you want to know what I think about something and it isn't clear from my writing - ask! If it's relevant to the argument (or even not detrimental to the argument) I'll answer if I can.

Third and finally, a quick description of how I come to this discussion. I'm a civilian analyst by training and inclination. I have worked for FFRDCs. I have worked for defense contractors. I have worked in academia. I have never served in the armed forces, although I have spent a great deal of time arguing during classes and hoisting beers with members of same. I have the greatest respect for those that serve. I choose to think about defense issues from outside the defense establishment because as a citizen of the United States of America, I believe that it is my responsibility to do my utmost to ensure that the power and capabilities of the United States military are wielded effectively and for the right reasons and in the right way. What is right? That's a good question. But as a citizen, I want to be as confident as I can that when we have discussions about the use of military power, we are having that discussion with the best facts, figures, and reasoning possible.

So, I'm not brimming with 'domain specific' knowledge. I expect to make mistakes. I hope that when I do, you'll tell me so that I can learn; I hope that when you disagree with me (which will probably be often) you'll tell me so with context and reasoning. It is from such disagreements that institutional learning can arise.

I'm here to look mostly at facts and figures, and to say 'Hey...wait a minute...' when I think those facts and figures are either incorrect, or just not supported well enough by calculations for us to just trust them. I'm not a mathematics whiz; I was trained by analysts who believe that basic methods can provide a great deal of insight into the problem if they're applied with common sense, consistency and rigour.

I'm nervous, and I'm excited to be here. Over the next few weeks, I'll be trying to get my brain back up to speed on many of the issues I haven't followed as closely as I might have been, working as I do these days in a civilian tech field (but still as an analyst). My passion is submarines; my interests include all manner of technical systems and procedures. I plan on tweaking the group knowledge and skills here into educating me about these as much as I can get away with, while hopefully, again, sparking and contributing to discussion.

Next up: Submarine deployment ratios. What the heck are they, really, and whose numbers should we believe? And from when? And, for those that don't do this for a living, why?