NATO RoE For Somalia Almost Ready

According to a recent report from Reuters, the NATO ships have been slowed by rough seas in reaching Somalia, but will soon arrive. What is interesting is, when asked about the Rules of Engagement for the NATO forces, NATO is changing its tune.

A NATO anti-piracy force will arrive off the coast of Somalia in the next few days with clear rules on how it can take on high-seas bandits, NATO said on Wednesday.

The commander of the force, U.S. Admiral Mark Fitzgerald, told reporters on Tuesday the alliance had still not provided him with rules of engagement.

"They will arrive in the coming days," NATO spokesman James Appathurai said of the anti-piracy ships.

"They will have the rules of engagement that they need ... they will know exactly what they need to do and how they should do it," Appathurai told a regular news conference, adding the rules of engagement, including how and when the mission could use force, would be agreed within a day or two.

We previously noted ADM Mark Fitzgerald's comment, and think he is being very smart in raising the issue publicly to insure the decision makers in NATO recognize this is an important issue. This only works as long as everyone knows how to handle the situation, and it is unfortunate this issue wasn't worked out prior to deployment. Training is more effective when conducted with Rules of Engagement enforced during the training exercises. It prevents mistakes, the sailors of the NATO forces will have to adjust quickly.

The Russian frigate inbound is a few days behind the NATO force, and could face the same rough seas. Given the distance, the Russian frigate will probably make a quick stop in Yemen first to supply, before moving into position. That is just a guess, but not a bad guess. As events unfold daily off the Somalian coast, the smart move is to prepare for the long haul, particularly as press reports are now suggesting the ship with the hostages on board is running out of food.

We approach the end game here, which could end with ransom paid or action taken, or some other conclusion no one sees coming. What is at stake? 33 old but powerful main battle tanks without an owner, and the lives of every sailor on the ship. The lives are the most important thing, which implies the conclusion could, and probably will be ransom. The French paid the ransom before going after the pirates. It is not a terrible model to follow, I'd be particularly encouraged if we start hearing of Admirals being parachuted in, which is the part of that action that I will never get tired of talking about.

While the RoE is in its final phases of being established, NATO can assume WFO escorts now that the Canadians have completed their mission.