On the NOC

There are discussions out there regarding the Naval Operational Concept soon to be released. SteelJaw Scribe and David Axe both noted the new article by Chris Cavas in DefenseNews on the subject, and I am admittedly encouraged.

Knowing it has not been finalized has kept me cautious in regards to the discussion. I have not seen a copy of the drafts in circulation, and it is hard to comment based on a breakdown of a single news article.

If the draft holds up with the general tone in the NOC, and all that gets added is some of the details filled in for the final version, my impression is that Bob Work of CSBA has basically won every argument in the strategic discussion. There are several examples including but not limited to his realist perspective in that discussion, Chapter 5 in that document (PDF), his perspective on the Maritime Strategy as expressed here (PDF), his view on amphibious warfare and sea basing as outlined in detail here (PDF), and personally I think it is impossible to miss his influence on the way ahead portion of the decision to truncate the DDG-1000, being he was the one who publicly suggested bringing back the DDG-51s in this report (PDF) long before Roughead was CNO. One thing I have not seen, but do intend to spend more time focusing on in the future, is his emphasis of the National Fleet as expressed in the Fall 2008 issue of Orbis. I spoke to both General Conway and Admiral Allen last month in a period of about 10 days, and upon reflection I think it is interesting both men discussed at length the National Fleet concept. With that in mind, it is probably time to update this document (PDF).

I may not be doing Bob any favors with this observation, but the Navy is doing itself a favor if it is true. In my opinion, the Navy has two serious problems right now; Surface Combatant vision and the lack of an articulate message as part of the decision process. Both have generated recognizable symptoms, including the absence of a public conversation, the hits to leaderships credibility that ultimately stands out in the process of developing programs, ideas, and explaining decisions, and finally the perception the Navy doesn't have a vision that looks forward, instead, too often putting out a perception that what is in development now is all the Navy is concerned with.

Bob Work's reports have the potential of changing that perception a bit, because each report does represent the development over time of ideas and a future look that has the feel of a plan in motion. As a side bonus, he's popular with both the press and the industry, and has given numerous speeches all of which have been well received. With a little political support, something both he and CSBA probably doesn't want, the Navy may have found their evangelist.

While I will wait for the official NOC before discussing, the summery by Chris Cavas is very good, and could end up being an indication of the decisions that have come about as a result of the last many months/years of debate as the Navy reorients itself for the 21st century. For example, a strategic document that suggests a fleet of 42 amphibs are needed? Too good to be true in my opinion, because I'd have to suffer the pleasure of spending a week telling Mike why I am right.

Although it might be nice to break out my copy of England in the Seven Year's War by Julian Corbett and put together my take on 21st century strategy in the context of a classic.