Are Pirates the Problem, or the Solution?

Two of my favorite writers, Robert Farley and Thomas Barnett, have weighed in on Somali piracy, and while I agree with every point made by both, I disagree with both writers regarding how to manage the issue of Somali piracy. It isn't that I disagree with either of them that building international partnerships to fight piracy is the wrong way ahead, I would just point out that the current actions by the US Navy to in fact do nothing to curb piracy is well aligned with US Grand Strategy, even though working with international partners to curb piracy is also well aligned with US Grand Strategy. The point here is not trivial, the point is that Somali piracy is not counter to US interests in Somalia. Rare will you find a blog committed to Naval discussions make the argument that piracy is not counter to the interests of the United States, but when it comes to Somalia it is important to remember that for this country right now, there are other, more important strategic interests at work.

Dear reader, do not be misled by media reporting. Keep in mind that there are a lot of legitimate business interests not of the United States that are facing a difficult challenge with Somali piracy. However, there are no significant US business interests threatened by Somali piracy, Somali piracy does not represent even a minor economic threat to the United States. Even with the hijacking of a Saudi supertanker, and even if every supertanker from the Persian Gulf has to take the long route around the Cape of Good Hope, this amounts to less than 1 penny per gallon cost for the American citizen. Perspective is important.

The most serious cost estimates of Somalia piracy are suggesting it is having a $14 billion dollar impact, and that is probably a very optimistic guess because I honestly can't find more than $1 billion, and I study this stuff. For context, assuming $14 billion dollars, then that doesn't account for much in a $7.8 trillion dollar global industry. Even at the super estimate of $14 billion dollars, that means piracy is impacting the industry a whole 0.1%.

Economic considerations are secondary though, from the US perspective it is important to remember that JTF-HOA has a purpose, is very active, and has nothing to do with piracy. Somalia represents a major front in the Global War on Terror, and the US National Security Strategy for Somalia is essentially to wait for a government that can manage the nation to emerge. The United States destroyed the Islamic Courts because they represented a future likely Taliban. The United States, and specifically JTF-HOA is working towards building up every nation surrounding Somalia. The United States is essentially allowing Somalia to remain an ungoverned country because the status quo gives us more freedom of action in fighting al Qaeda and other extremist terrorism allies in Somalia. Piracy is a side effect, and not necessarily a terrible side effect, of that strategy.

There are very few people dieing from piracy. The areas that are being governed by the pirate companies are functioning and less violent than areas where piracy does not exist, indeed pirate cities are thriving. The pirates are not only commercial in nature, but they are enemies of the Islamic extremists that represent the enemy of the United States. It sounds crazy to say, but the pirates are essentially the secular, liberal capitalists of Somalia, and the United States would prefer to deal WITH not AGAINST those types of people. Know your history, the Europeans preferred dealing with the Brashaws of the Barbary states than the alternative, the Islamic militant armies. We are essentially allowing the pirates to build themselves as regional Brashaws of Somalia with the ransom money from piracy, while the Islamists who remain violent are struggling for funding.

The symptom of our problem is becoming the rest of the worlds problem, and they recognize that piracy is a symptom of our problem. Now they are realizing the terrible truth we already know: namely that 100 years of legal bullshit has left most of the world with anti-piracy laws that date to the 19th century, and all of the 20th century laws work against solving the problem. The 20th century major legal frameworks are built to fight 3rd generation war, and are ill suited for the 4th generation challenges we are facing, including piracy in Somalia.

We do not have the 21st century rule sets to solve these problems, both the Geneva Convention and the UNCLOS are counter towards solving the problem. Even the Europeans know it, it is why only the French have an evolved legal rule set to actually take pirates prisoners, indeed have you noticed nobody has taken prisoners, even the Indians who 'blew up' a mothership? The legal system is better suited to killing them all than capturing any of them. Clearly any such legal system is broken.

For example, have you ever read Geneva III, Article 22? Look it up. Several EU nations accused the US of violating the Geneva Conventions for putting Saddam Hussain on an aircraft carrier after he was captured. The US policy is so damn confusing because the Bush administration never bothered to address the legal rule sets for 21st century challenges. The rule sets, yes including the Geneva Convention, need to be updated to the 21st century, and the US strategy is to force the rest of the world to see it, deal with the same problems we have already run into this century, and help fix the rule sets. Somali piracy is a very inexpensive, non lethal means towards those ends. Once we achieve that, we can forge international partnerships and stomp out the problem quickly.

Its Grand Strategy, often not well understood but easy to follow if you simply apply the facts as they are. The US Navy is not fighting piracy, they are too busy engaged in the GWOT in Somalia to bother with some of the symptoms of the main problem. The US Navy simply has to keep terrible things from happening and continue to prosecute the GWOT, that is their strategic priority and it is in line with policy. Let the rest of the world deal with the symptoms of our problem, symptoms like piracy, because they can either gather an enormous number of warships and try to fight the symptoms, or they can help us solve the real problem. Long term, I think the United States believes the pirates are part of the solution, not the problem the media is making them out to be. Why? Because they are an alternative to the Islamic Courts, an alternative motivated by something the rest of the world can relate too. Economics.