Foreign Policy Climbs Out On A Piratical Limb

Foreign Policy makes an ill-considered call on their blog by placing a prediction regarding piracy as #3 of their "10 Worst Predictions for 2008". First, here's the prediction:

“[In] reality the risks to maritime flows of oil are far smaller than is commonly assumed. First, tankers are much less vulnerable than conventional wisdom holds. Second, limited regional conflicts would be unlikely to seriously upset traffic, and terrorist attacks against shipping would have even less of an economic effect. Third, only a naval power of the United States’ strength could seriously disrupt oil shipments.” —Dennis Blair and Kenneth Lieberthal, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2007

Now here's FP's take:

On Nov. 15, 2008 a group of Somali pirates in inflatable rafts hijacked a Saudi oil tanker carrying 2 million barrels of crude in the Indian Ocean. The daring raid was part of a rash of attacks by Somali pirates, which have primarily occurred in the Gulf of Aden. Pirates operating in the waterway have hijacked more than 50 ships this year, up from only 13 in all of last year, according to the Piracy Reporting Center. The Gulf of Aden, where nearly 4 percent of the world’s oil demand passes every day, was not on the list of strategic “chokepoints” where oil shipments could potentially be disrupted that Blair and Lieberthal included in their essay, “Smooth Sailing: The World’s Shipping Lanes Are Safe.” Hopefully, Blair will show a bit more foresight if, as some expect, he is selected as Barack Obama’s director of national intelligence.

First, it's quite a stretch to characterize the hijacking of one supertanker as a "serious upset" to the maritime flow of oil. Again, thus far the only consequences are those barrels of oil will be delayed to market and delivered at a higher cost.

And second, were the Somali pirates to take any action that posed more than the current nuisance factor, the international response would be (rightly) overwhelming. Indeed, a serious disruption in the flow of shipping through the Gulf of Aden might be the only thing that could get the international community to seriously address the roots of the piracy problem: instability in the Horn of Africa.