Observing the Russian Fleets Future Time and Place

The Russian Pacific fleet has dispatched the destroyer RFS Admiral Vinogradov (DDG 572), the salvage tug Fotiy Krylov and the tankers Pechenga and Boris Butoma to the Indian Ocean. Operating in the Atlantic Ocean is the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov escorted by the destroyer RFS Admiral Levchenko (DDG 605), and 2 support ships, currently heading for the Mediterranean Sea. The Russian frigate RFS Neustrashimy (FFG 712) continues to operate against piracy in the Gulf of Aden. Finally, the RFS Pyotr Veliky (BCGN 099), RFS Admiral Chabanenko (DDG 650), the Ivan Bubnov, and the fleet tug SB-406 has departed Cuba and is reportedly due to visit Cape Town from January 9 to 15, the nuclear paperwork having been filed.

Even with the increased number of forward deployed Russian Navy vessels, there really hasn't been anything interesting to note about any of these deployments to date. For example, it is very hard to get worked up about the RFS Admiral Chabanenko (DDG 650) visit to Cuba when just last year the same ship pulled into Norfolk. If anything, the Cubans should be pissed the Russians sent their Navy to visit us a year before they sending their ship to visit them. RFS Neustrashimy (FFG 712) is operating off the coast of Somalia fighting piracy with the Europeans, and it would be difficult to find a more noteworthy sign of the times.

The Russian Navy currently has 13 ships deployed globally, which is noteworthy only because this represents a post cold war high number of naval forces deployed. To put this into a strange perspective, all 13 ships are currently deployed across three oceans: Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian, although 8 of the 14 ships actually home port just off the Arctic Ocean. The dispersal is certainly an interesting part of the naval deployments, but primarily so the media can hype a port visit to places like Cuba. In real terms, even with all of this Russian Navy activity, to date there is no real significance anywhere.

But as 2008 comes to an end and 2009 comes about, an interesting quark of timing is unfolding as it relates to all this naval activity. Have you thought about where all these ships will just happen to be around say, January 20th, 2009? I don't want to give the impression that Russia is out to stir the pot come inauguration day, but it is noteworthy that the Russian Navy will essentially be deployed in virtually every important major body of water that surrounds the Middle East just as new president takes office, the same incoming presidential administration the mainstream media keeps telling us Russia is going to test in any number of ways.

And that is the thing with media driven rhetorical commentary on foreign relations and alarmist military analysis, you never really know when they might actually get it right. Do I think this means war is on the horizon? Nope, but I'd be pay a little extra attention to Iran and everything happening around the Ukraine just in case, because nothing would make Russia happier right now than seeing something force the price of oil back up, and uncertainty in the form of a new government administration can be a big part of the recipe of contributing factors when the game is speculation, as the oil game is.