Monday, March 31, 2024

Observing The Omission of Seabasing In the Navy's Maritime Strategy

Hopefully by now you have taken the opportunity to read the contribution to the Maritime Strategy discussion by the Center for Strategic Studies written by Bob Work and Jan van Tol regarding the Navy's new Maritime Strategy.

When we talk about strategy on this blog, we discuss it as context, ends, ways, and means for a complete strategic vision. Building on the many discussions of seabasing off Liberia we had last week, we observe that by highlighting the purpose and methods of that operation is an excellent starting place for discussing the strategic concepts and the strategic questions surrounding the Cooperative Maritime Strategy for 21st Century Seapower (from here on called 21st Century Seapower).

The CSBA strategy assessment discusses seabasing in its conclusions as a critical omission, and we couldn't agree more.

A third obvious omission is the concept’s lack of any substantive discussion of “seabasing.” The idea of using the sea as a joint base of operations in both peacetime and wartime has been a central theme of the Navy-Marine Corps story since the mid-1950s, and especially since the late 1990s. Its absence suggests that this central theme no longer pertains in the Global Era’s cooperative phase. When asked why seabasing had been dropped from the Sea Services’ primary narrative, one of the authors of the strategy responded that the Services had purposely steered away from addressing or highlighting any specific “program.” This answer is itself quite revealing. It suggests that framers of the concept now view seabasing simply in programmatic terms (e.g., what platforms to buy) rather than as a strong foundation for any maritime strategic concept.

This is unfortunate. The rationale for seabasing is stronger than at any time since the end of World War II. During the Transoceanic Era/Cold War, the United States adopted a global defense posture that emphasized forwardbased combat forces in the theaters in which they were expected to fight. During the Global Era, the US has begun shifting away from this garrison posture toward one that emphasizes the forward-deployment of US combat forces from bases located on American sovereign territory. In such an expeditionary posture, the value of maritime forces in general, and seabasing in particular, naturally goes up.74 By omitting any discussion of the general strategic, operational, and tactical advantages of seabasing, the authors seem to have lost an important opportunity to further distinguish the Sea Services’ maritime strategic concept from those of the other Services. Moreover, this omission is inconsistent with the 2006 QDR, which stressed the need for innovative basing concepts to maximize US global freedom of action.

In the early discussions on the blogs regarding the Maritime Strategy, CDR McGrath (as Strategy1) used the description of "hobby horse" in the discussion of seabasing, fully representing this "programmatic" view of seabasing. We find it unconvincing that the strategists are looking at seabasing as a program when indeed the various applications of seabasing clearly represent a strategic concept, and in many cases we observe multiple applications of seabasing where none can be defined by any single program. The ongoing operation off Liberia clearly represents at least two different applications of the strategic maritime concept of seabasing.

We are reminded that the African Partnership Station (APS) is an example of Global Fleet Stations, which National Defense Magazine reported the Navy defined as seabasing.

The global fleet station, the Navy paper says, “is a persistent sea base of operations from which to coordinate and employ adaptive force packages within a regional area of interest.” Its primary responsibility would be “shaping operations, theater security cooperation, global maritime awareness, and tasks associated specifically with the war on terror.”
By this definition the APS can be described as a maritime strategic concept intended to promote theater security cooperation, global maritime awareness, and tasks associated specifically with the war on terror (ends or purpose) by coordinating and employing adaptive force packages (ways or method to achieve the ends) to the participating nations of the APS. Within the context of 21st Century Seapower the 'program' element would be classified as the means (or resources) used to accomplish the ways. Instead the naval strategists are claiming seabasing is simply a program. If Seabasing is simply a program, why is the term 'seabasing' used to describe the execution of four different mission sets: Disaster Response to the 2004 Tsunami, Global Fleet Stations, Anti-Piracy operations off Somalia, and a joint Sea Base for supporting amphibious operations.

How can seabasing be a program if the implementation capitalizes on various types of resources (means) depending upon the strategic concept leveraged for seabasing? For the disaster response mission to the 2004 Tsunami the Navy used grey and white hulls for humanitarian operations. For Global Fleet Stations the Navy is using HSVs, amphibious ships, and RO/ROs. For Anti-Piracy operations the Navy is using amphibious ships and MSC T-AKEs, and for the Joint Sea Base the plan uses all the above and some.

Further to the point, in Liberia we observe a transshipment capability with INLS, enabling a port where none exists which would lead to a question, is the INLS program the Sea Base? The vehicles are moved to theater by the RO/ROs, tailored to the mission by the amphibious ship, and deployed to the objective by a HSV. However, we also have the SS Cleveland involved in the humanitarian delivery, which highlights yet another resource in use for implementation of a strategic concept. Is this really a program, or perhaps an omitted strategic concept being executed to support the maritime strategy?

We see the omission of seabasing as part of a larger issue of 21st Century Seapower, something the Navy needs to get its intellectual rigor behind to execute 21st Century Seapower successfully. There is a mission statement in bold and italics on page 4 of 21st Century Seapower, (PDF) it reads:
We believe that preventing wars is as important as winning wars.
We see this phrase as the mission statement for the Navy's maritime strategy. The phrase has got a lot of attention, and is covered in the CSBA document as follows:

when used as part of a maritime strategic concept, the statement that “preventing wars is as important as winning wars” is much different than saying that “preventing war is preferable to fighting wars”—which, as mentioned above, goes without saying. Consistent with Huntington, the former statement implies that organizing the Sea Services (the third key element of any strategic concept) primarily for “Missions of Peace” is as important as organizing the Sea Services to win wars. This thinking would appear to conflate the idea of deployment strategies—how the Sea Services choose to employ the warfighting fleet in peacetime—with organizing and structuring the Sea Services primarily to meet an existing or emerging national security threat.

As Huntington wrote, this would be a great mistake:

A military service may at times, of course, perform functions unrelated to external security, such as internal policing, disaster relief, and citizenship training. These are however, subordinate and collateral responsibilities. A military service does not exist to perform these functions; rather it performs these functions because it has already been called into existence to meet some threat.

Huntington goes on to say that when the American people and their elected representatives decide to devote resources to the maintenance of a military capability, “it is necessary for the society to forego the alternative uses to which these resources might be put and to acquiesce in their allocation to the military service.” There are far cheaper ways to allocate resources for “Missions of Peace” than building or organizing military units dedicated solely for these purposes. However, as Huntington suggests, allocating resources to build and organize forces to meet a national security threat, and then using them to conduct “Missions of Peace” when the threat is quiescent or in check makes perfect sense: it accrues a higher rate of return on the resources allocated by the American public to the service.

CSBA is making brilliant observations here, 21st Century Seapower is promoting a broad strategy in that the mission statement can be read to say warfighting is as important as peacemaking, which becomes a critical point in the execution of the Navy's maritime strategy. The implication is to the point of duality in purpose, as the object of maritime strategy is no longer simply Command of the Sea in the context of Mahan or Corbett, rather in its duality the strategy seeks a second object that promotes conditions that prevent the outbreak of war.

My read of Huntington is that he would disapprove of the Navy's duality approach in 21st Century Seapower, but my read of Thomas Barnett is that this is an important requirement, and absent a SysAdmin force for executing peacemaker roles, the military is filling the gap. The question remains, is it the job of the Navy (or Marines) to be the SysAdmin force, or is that a role for another agency? I do not blame the services for filling the critical gap here, the rest of government has shown a remarkable lack of initiative to fill the capability gaps for these SysAdmin roles, and I do not observe any political leadership willing to force the changes needed for other agencies to fill those roles. It doesn't change the question, but in some ways it explains the Navy's decisions.

Assuming this duality in strategy is executed with equal priority, if 21st Century Seapower is to be executed successfully in pursuit of both objects outlined in strategy, the Navy is going to need to spend considerable intellectual rigor in developing principles of peacemaking for the maritime strategy, and do so with a clear understanding of what contributes to peacemaking and warfighting in regards to naval resources and capabilities.

For example, if we apply the maritime strategy of duality to the strategic concept of AEGIS Ballistic Missile Defense, the strategic concept behind ballistic missile defense must be evident in both warfighting and peacemaking. In that regard, we can make a pretty good argument to support the warfighter in the defense of ballistic missiles, but as was discussed at the blogger roundtable (transcript here), we can also make an intellectual argument for peacemaking in regards to escalation control. The issue going forward is to produce the intellectual rigor in how to leverage AEGIS BMD for escalation control in pursuit of the second object "that prevent the outbreak of war."

Another example is seabasing. The contrast between a seabasing operation for supporting a humanitarian mission (like what we are observing off Liberia) and supporting an amphibious assault mission (as defined in the program of record) demonstrates the warfighter and peacemaker capabilities of seabasing within the context of 21st Century Seapower.

Is Ballistic Missile Defense a program? Apparently not, it is discussed in 21st Century Seapower as a strategic capability. Is Seabasing a program? Apparently it is seen that way by the strategists, because it is not discussed in 21st Century Seapower due to it being a 'program'. Our concerns regarding 21st Century Seapower is that in order to execute the duality nature of the Strategic Concept presented, a considerable amount of intellectual rigor will be required to define the peacemaking aspects that are given equality to the traditional warfighting aspects. In this way the Navy can demonstrate a lack of strategic vision whenever it executes programs that do not demonstrate pursuit of both objects outlined in the strategy, or equally damaging when the Navy omits strategic concepts that are in pursuit of both objects.

Others are discussing Maritime Strategy today as well:

SteelJaw Scribe - Contributes an excellent discussion regarding the CSBA assessment.
CDR Salamnder - Contributes an excellent discussion regarding the CSBA assessment.

I will update as other contributions are made. We will further expand our thoughts on the duality nature of the maritime strategy tomorrow.

Sunday, March 30, 2024

Sunday Photos: Observing the Little Things

It is very rare you can get good photography of two ships of the same class at nearly the same angle other than the front within 3 days of each other, but we have some good looking photo's here for comparison. Can you spot the differences? I see many, all very interesting,

YOKOSUKA, Japan (March 27, 2024) Line handlers assigned to the guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain (DDG 56) heave on the aft mooring lines as large harbor tugs assist the guided-missile destroyer USS Stethem (DDG 63) as it moors at Fleet Activities Yokosuka. McCain and Stethem are two of seven Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers assigned to Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 15. U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Nardelito Gervacio



PEARL HARBOR, Hawaii (March 24, 2024) The guided missile destroyer USS Russell (DDG 59) departs to join the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group. The strike group is deploying in support of the global war on terrorism in the U.S. 5th Fleet area of responsibility. U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication 2nd Class Michael A. Lantron

Click the pics for links to High Resolution.

The British Finally Invest in the Navy

Catchy title, but hey any naval investment for ships is news these days right? You never know, they may need this ship one day at the current rate of decline. Under the headline Frigate is Secure for 1000 Years.

The future of a Hartlepool landmark has been secured for nearly 1,000 years thanks to a multi-million pound deal.

A £30m deal has been struck between the HMS Trincomalee Trust, Hartlepool Borough Council and local development company Jomast.

The 990-year lease of the land adjacent to the Wingfield Castle paddle boat, which is owned by the trust, will secure the long-term future of HMS Trincomalee, Britain's oldest floating warship.

Oh you thought I was talking about an active naval ship of the Royal Navy? Nice joke, but the British people and more specifically the government has turned their back on the Royal Navy. I'm beginning to wonder if in my lifetime the MoD will demand a defense fleet for the Royal Navy modeled after Thomas Jefferson theories of maritime defense fleets. There is some irony in that thought, considering the Royal Navy routed that defense force in 1814 on their way to burn down my nations capital.

Why am I taking a cheap shot at the British today? Because I got a second email about something I originally didn't believe, and now that I've heard it from two sources, I think it is very fair to speak loud and proud about the deception here. Things are not as they appear.

GR9 Harrier jump jets have joined a Royal Navy Task Group currently deployed in the Arabian Sea.

The Harriers flew out from their home base in England to join HMS Illustrious, which is heading the Orion deployment. For the next few weeks, the pilots and ground crew from the Naval Strike Wing will be working alongside the crew of HMS Illustrious to ensure that the Royal Navy maintains its carrier strike capability.

Commodore Tom Cunningham Royal Navy, who commands the Orion group said “The ability to operate Harriers from an aircraft carrier is a key skill which has to be practised whenever possible. The presence of the Naval Strike Wing on HMS Illustrious demonstrates their flexibility and the UK’s commitment to maintaining its carrier strike capability.”

Remember, the Royal Navy operates two aircraft carrier today and is 'supposedly' making a huge investment into two more. So how many Harriers were deployed for this very important mission to the Middle East?

FOUR. Sign the petition if your British, save your fleet while it still floats.

Saturday, March 29, 2024

New Publications Offer Excellent Weekend Reading

The Maritime Strategy talk is picking up in a big way with a continuous drumbeat of articles and analysis. This week there are 6 new contributions from some of the most influential professionals on naval subjects, including Bob Work and Captain Wayne P. Hughes.

First on the list is the contribution from Bob Work and Jan van Tol. A Cooperative Strategy For 21st Century Seapower: An Assessment. I look at this short contribution as the starting point for understanding the Navy's new maritime strategy. It tells a story of the Navy struggling to find its way over the last few years in a post cold war environment driven by globalization, but evaluated in the context of Samuel P. Huntington.

The next 5 pieces all come as part of the Naval War College Spring 2008 Review (PDF 8.95 MB).

“A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower”
A View from Outside
Geoffrey Till

Commercial Shipping and the Maritime Strategy
Steve Carmel

Implementing the Seapower Strategy
Captain Wayne P. Hughes, Jr., U.S. Navy (Retired)

The New Maritime Strategy
A Lost Opportunity
William T. Pendley

The New Maritime Strategy
The Rest of the Story
Robert C. Rubel

There are some other articles in that review as well, including the topics of Sea-Basing medicine, the Law of the Sea Treaty, and a very interesting article on Chinese energy in the context of a naval blockade. There is also an interesting article in the Spring 2008 NWC review regarding Chinese repression and how our national leaders explain it away. Finally there is a book review of a book that I've heard about and want to read, although it is pretty expensive which is why I'm trying to get the local library to buy it. Chinese Naval Strategy in the 21st Century: The Turn to Mahan is reviewed as excellent, which is what I have been hearing from a few friends who have read it. I've heard this book does the job few can do in getting people to ask the right questions regarding Chinese Sea Power.

This coming week the theme will be maritime strategy as we discuss these contributions, more thoughts from the blogger roundtable, and other information related to that topic. Of coarse, we will also discuss the usual news and events as they happen.

5th Fleet Focus: Order of Battle

Order of Battle in the 5th Fleet Area of Responsibility.

The Truman Carrier Strike Group

USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75)
USS San Jacinto (CG 56) - 6th Fleet
USS Hue City (CG 66)
USS Carney (DDG 64)
USS Oscar Austin (DDG 79)
USS Winston S. Churchill (DDG 81)
HMS Manchester (D95)
HMCS Charlottetown (FFH 339)
USNS Arctic (T-AOE 8)
USS Montpelier (SSN 765)


Tarawa Expeditionary Strike Group

USS Tarawa (LHA 1)
USS Cleveland (LPD 7)
USS Germantown (LSD 42)
USS Port Royal (CG 73)
USS Hopper (DDG 70)
USS Ingraham (FFG 61)


Orion 08 Strike Group

HMS Illustrious (R06)
HMS Edinburgh (D97)
HMS Westminster (F237)
HMS Trafalgar (S107)
HMS Atherstone (M38)
HMS Chiddingfold (M37)
USS Cole (DDG 67)
FS Jean Bart (D615)
FS Surcouf (F 711)
SPS Mendez Nunez (F104)


In Theater

Ocean 6
FGS Emden (F 210)
HNLMS Evertsen (F 805)
HDMS Thetis (F357)
ITS Commandante Borsini (P491) - India
FS Guepratte (F714)
FS Commandant Bouan (F797)
USS Whidbey Island (LSD 41)
HMS Campbeltown (F86)
HMS Montrose (F236)
HMAS Arunta (FFH 151)
USS Scout (MCM 8)
USS Gladiator (MCM 11)
USS Ardent (MCM 12)
USS Dexterous (MCM 13)
HMS Ramsay (M 110)
HMS Blyth (M 111)

This list is incomplete. There were foreign media reports this week that some elements of the Nassau ESG crossed the Suez Canal, but there has been no indication whether this is true or which ships might have crossed based on open source media reporting in the US. Additionally there are more French ships in the region than is listed here.

Friday, March 28, 2024

Friday Photos: Joint Training

I've been distracted observing the Sea Base operation off Liberia, not sure how I missed these recently released joint training pictures.


STENNIS SPACE CENTER, Miss. (Feb. 14, 2008) An Army Reserve CH-47D helicopter assigned to the 159th Aviation Regiment in Fort Eustis, Va., lifts an 11-meter rigid-hull inflatable boat (RHIB) as special warfare combatant-craft crewmen use a ladder to board the aircraft during an evolution of maritime external air transportation system along the Pearl River. The aircraft is capable of lifting and transporting the special operations craft long distances over land or water, saving time and fuel. U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Robyn Gerstenslager


STENNIS SPACE CENTER, Miss. (Feb. 14, 2008) An Army Reserve CH-47D helicopter, assigned to the 159th Aviation Regiment in Fort Eustis, Va., lifts an 11-meter rigid-hull inflatable boat (RHIB) as special warfare combatant-craft crewmen use a ladder to board the aircraft during a maritime external air transportation system training exercise along the Pearl River in Mississippi. The aircraft is capable of lifting and transporting the special operations craft long distances over land or water. U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Robyn Gerstenslager

Thursday, March 27, 2024

Maritime Strategy: Blogger Roundtable

This evening several bloggers participated in a Blogger Roundtable conference call with Deputy Chief of Naval Operations Vice Adm. John Morgan. It was my first time participating in one of these blogger discussions, and I personally thought it was interesting. Other participants included Eagle1, SteelJaw Scribe, David Axe, and I think the fourth was Greg Grant of GovExec (I might be wrong). Invited but unable to show up was CDR Salamander, Chap, and Thomas Barnett.

First I want to give credit to the Navy. Last Friday I was critical of the Navy not leveraging the internet, and then yesterday I get an email from CDR Salamander who forwards me a message from the host of the blogger roundtable, with a link to that criticism no less, asking how to get in touch with me. Mike, for the record, I'm rethinking my position and you might be right.

The audio of the discussion is available on BlogTalkRadio if you are interested. Listening to myself is a reminder that 8 years in New York has done little to take the Arkansas draw out of my voice, even if I still haven't recovered said voice in full from my recent illness. My wife told me yesterday I sound like I'm going through puberty, but thankfully the voice returned enough that the little boy voice from yesterday won't be broadcast across cyberspace.

I will probably discuss the roundtable discussion further once I get done thinking about some of what was said. I was the only person who was able to ask two questions, perks of arriving first. My questions were (this is not verbatim).

Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response is featured as one of the 6 capabilities the Navy intends to execute with the MS. Observing the proactive deployments of both grey and white hulls, the Mercy and Comfort missions for example, the Peleliu deployment to SE Asia last year, and the upcoming deployment of the USS Boxer to South America, the Navy is committing budgetary resources including ships and personnel to what some are calling Naval Medical Diplomacy. Conventional wisdom, of which I am a subscriber, suggests these missions do (or should) contribute to the National Interest, but my question is, what empirical data is being measured to determine success or failure of these Medical Diplomacy deployments? What metrics is the Navy using to measure the return on investment of this capability outlined in the MS?
The answer was that the Navy is using the independent analysis by Pew Research to collect the data. At first Vice Adm Morgan started discussing statistics, but he pulled up short realizing those aren't measurements of success, rather measurements of work conducted. I've been thinking about this for awhile now, and it seems to me this is something the State Dept would do if they were worth a shit, and Pew Research data would be crossed reference as a second source. The ability to measure soft power including initiatives like Naval Medical Diplomacy is going to be critical in the development of successful peacetime strategy principles, and right now the government is outsourcing this role. Maybe I am off base here, but if I was the Navy, I would want to measure the degree of success of my own strategy. Every successful large business in America internally measures the success or failure of their strategies, I think the Navy should too.

The second question.
The 2006 QDR lists "Shaping the Choices of Countries at Strategic Crossroads" as one of its 4 strategic priorities, and it goes on to say "The United States will attempt to shape these choices in ways that foster cooperation and mutual security interests." While the QDR goes on to list a number of countries, it spotlights the choices of major and emerging powers including India, Russia and China as key factors in determining the international security environment of the 21st century. The Maritime Strategy makes reference to preventing great power war and announcing the concentration of combat credible maritime power in the Pacific, but does not specifically identify these and other emerging challengers to the international security environment by name, My question is, why does the MS intentionally not discuss the challenges of emerging regional powers? For example, why doesn't the MS discuss the impressive growth in China’s maritime power when we are potentially on the edge of a maritime competition?
I kinda stumbled on myself getting both questions out, oh well. In answering this question Adm Morgan basically said they didn't want to name any names and he didn't offer a reason why. I was left unimpressed by the answer, there was no intellectual reason offered regarding why the Navy would ignore naming the challenges. In my opinion Russia, India, and China each represent a unique challenge, the Middle East represents a unique challenge. This isn't about naming an axis of evil, I simply think if we are going to develop a maritime strategy to manage the disruptions to a world emerging through globalization in the 21st century, it seems a bit silly for us not to acknowledge challenges regarding the nations that will have the most influence on the international security environment of the 21st century.

In reflection, based on the non answer, but also due to the questions asked by SJS and Eagle1, I'm wishing I would have used my last question to discuss the duality nature of the Maritime Strategy. You have to listen to the short conference call to understand what I mean, but the Navy basically has developed two strategies, and we are way beyond the object being command of the sea.

I have two new phrases for the lexicon. Thanks to David Axe I'm thinking the phrase used by Vice Admiral Morgan that "Every budget is a Strategy" is something that we will be using quite often. Also SJS's question brought out an interesting discussion point, something more readily discussed before my generation grew up, but something that I think will be worth several thousand words on this blog in the future: Escalation Control. To me this sounds a bit like a strategic principle for a peacetime strategy.

Other points of interest. Vice Adm. Morgan thinks the fleet is too small to execute the maritime strategy. Vice Adm Morgan somewhat combined several aspects of the strategy to emphasize forward presence.

Final thought, prior to today I had not heard Vice Admiral Morgan speak, but I have read many dozen transcripts and published works that gave me some sense of his vision for naval strategy. A few months ago the question was asked who in the military are the great active duty modern security thinkers of our time, and I answered Vice Admiral Morgan. Today he validated my thinking at the time. I'll have more thoughts on the blogger roundtable discussion this weekend, but I want to digest the discussion before I dig in.

General Dynamics LCS-2 Costs Go Up... Again

Tony Capaccio has a story in Bloomberg today with bad news for the General Dynamics Littoral Combat Ship. Only about 2 months after the FY09 budget figures priced LCS-2 at $636 million total, there is news the price has jumped again. The article is not online yet, but is included in today CHINFO news clips.

General Dynamics Corp.'s new warship designed to operate close to shore will cost an estimated 9.3 percent more to build this fiscal year, according to Navy figures.

The cost for the year ending Sept. 30 will rise $41 million to $481 million for the first ship, according to a defense official with knowledge of the increase. That follows a 72 percent jump last year that boosted the cost from $256 million.

The math gets confusing, so Defense Industry Daily will help us out with the numbers.

The base cost as of the FY09 budget for the GD LCS was offered as $440 million. DID notes the total end cost includes $20M in change orders, $7M in government-furnished equipment (GFE) that’s bought separately and then integrated, and $40M for “other.” You then add $75 million final outfitting & post-delivery changes and $54 million final system design. This put the FY09 cost of LCS-2 at $636 million.

Bloomberg is saying the base ship cost of $440 million has risen $41 million, and is now $481 million. This brings the total end cost, including the $20M in change orders, $7M in government-furnished equipment (GFE) costs, and $40M for “other” costs to $548 million. When we add the $75 million final outfitting & post-delivery changes and $54 million final system design the total cost of LCS-2 is now up to $677 million.

For comparison purposes, the total end cost of LCS-1 (Lockheed Martin) is still listed as $631 million.

A few things to consider here. First, this comes as the newly Austal built Hawaii superferry Alakai remains laid up in dry-dock, where it has been since Feb 13th. The date the ferry will come out of dry-dock was recently pushed back from March 25th to April 22nd. While the claim is the damage that keeps it in dry-dock was suffered in dry-dock, there are questions as to whether it was a design issue that put the new ferry in dry-dock in the first place. The General Dynamics LCS-2 is very similar in design to the Alakai.

Second, this may be a sign that the Navy still does not have shipbuilding costs under control. It will be understandable if that is how Congress sees this cost increase, as just 2 weeks ago the Navy sat in front of the House and stated they did not expect more cost increases for the Littoral Combat Ships under construction. That type of testimony only makes the Navy look bad.

First-in-class ships are prototypes, cost increases should come to no surprise and due to the low cost of the LCS, the total cost increase for both LCS-1 and LCS-2 won't add up to the total cost increase of LPD-17 for example, so while there are serious concerns the amount of money being talked about with the LCS is low compared to when larger ships have problems. This is why we see red flags with the DDG-1000. It is unclear if this changes the cost cap for the Littoral Combat Ship at $460 million. We believe that is the critical question, because at $460 million + module costs the LCS is still a cost effective program. As the price rises over $460 million (in FY09 dollars), not so much.

Also we need to keep perspective. DDG-51 cost almost the same as DDG-54 and DDG-55 combined. We may be at the point where LCS-1 and LCS-2 cost as much as the next 3 ships combined. The LCS as a program has basically gone from design to water in about 4-5 years, lightning speed for a Navy shipbuilding program, the intention being to put hulls in the water faster, but at a higher cost. In that regard, higher costs for the first two Littoral Combat Ships were not only expected, they were predetermined. It will be interesting to see how this news effects an unpopular program, where the conversation has mostly shifted from the constant drumbeat of cost problems to the question of many analysts regarding whether the platform is in line with strategy to begin with.

Wednesday, March 26, 2024

Pictures of the Day: Leveraging the Sea as a Base

As long as the Navy continues to contribute excellent photography and stories regarding events taking place off Liberia, we'll continue to expend the blogger bandwidth highlighting the story.


A few thoughts. Anyone want to speculate a bit on the tugs? How many would be used in an operation like this? Would two be enough? Is that LCU acting as a sentry in the background of the second picture? One more thought, in observing the lighting setup, while it may work for this type of operation, one would imagine that isn't an optimal configuration for a Sea Base in wartime.


I don't know about you, but this story doesn't get old. They say a picture is worth a thousand words. From our POV, the pictures have us craving a thousand words not only on the Sea Basing aspect, but now we are curious about the work this base at sea is supporting.

In observing these photo's, are we right in assuming the pictures are being taken from one of the Ro/Ro's looking out onto the causeway pier? Somewhere I imagine the gods of the sea are smiling down observing this in the fine historical tradition of Hercules, Wimbrown VII, and Ocean 6 among too many others to name from Vietnam. As the gods would tell their servants, we have moved way beyond refitted barges for building bases at sea.

Does anyone else think it is time to come up with a clever name for this little US Navy FOB at Sea off the Liberian coast. I'd be curious to know what those folks in the picture are calling their sea base.

I still want to see a picture from sky view, something to give a context to the size and scope.

Return of the Maritime Strategy Discussion

Update: Report is online and available here. This is a good read.

We were under the impression an excellent contribution to the Maritime Strategy discussion would be released today by Bob Work and Jan van Tol of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Studies, but maybe I didn't get the memo of a date change?

Regardless, Mr. Work gave me permission to discuss the contribution, and I'm going to take him up on his offer. Hopefully the CSBA webmaster will upload the new contribution to the website tomorrow if they get the impression I'm stealing thunder. In honesty, I only wish I could promote this more than the traffic on this blog will allow, because the contribution is critical to the discussion of Maritime Strategy. The contribution: A Cooperative Strategy For 21st Century Seapower: An Assessment will hopefully soon be available for download from the CSBA website.

We have been aware of this contribution to the Maritime Strategy discussion for several weeks now, and in discussions with SteelJaw Scribe, Eagle1, Chap, and CDR Salamander we have all agreed the best approach is to encourage everyone interested in the Navy to download and read this new contribution when it becomes available. We do not intend to discuss the content of this backgrounder in detail until Monday March 31st, assuming it is available by then, in this way hoping that everyone is able to digest the contents of this latest contribution and be ready for the discussion then.

Our assessment and initial thoughts: This is the smartest contribution we have read to date on the Maritime Strategy discussion, a must read for anyone interested in Maritime Strategy and US Military Strategy, and believe it is the context and knowledge that many have been looking for since the initial impressions (or depression) that followed the release of the Navy's Maritime Strategy last October. We'd like to encourage all of our readers to take the time to read Bob Work's and Jan van Tol's contribution, as we intend to focus on the Maritime Strategy topic next week, and will undoubted find inspiration as other blogs discuss the topic as well. We include this sample as food for thought:

A MARITIME STRATEGIC CONCEPT, NOT A STRATEGY

Although A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower may not constitute a complete strategy, it is nonetheless a very important and valuable strategic document. As highlighted boldly on the top of page 5, the document describes a new maritime strategic concept, defined by Samuel P. Huntington as a service’s collective purpose or role in implementing national policy:

Basically, this concept is a description of how, when, and where the military service expects to protect the nation against some threat to its security. If a military service does not possess such a concept, it becomes purposeless, it wallows about amid a variety of conflicting and confusing goals, and ultimately it suffers both physical and moral degeneration.

A strategic concept is more akin to a strategic vision statement designed to guide and foster change in an organization. It therefore lacks the specifics that one might expect to find in a true strategy. One of its primary aims is to help garner the “resources, human and material, which are required to implement [a Service’s] strategic concept.” In other words, the key aim of a strategic concept is to bolster public support for the Service. As Huntington wrote:

If a service does not possess a well-defined strategic concept, the public and the political leaders will be confused as to the role of the service, uncertain as to the necessity of its existence, and apathetic or hostile to the claims made by the service upon the resources of society.

In Huntington’s view, a strategic concept and the resources needed to implement it are two of the three key “elements” associated with any military service. The third and final element is its organizational structure—how the service “group[s] the resources allocated by society…most effectively to implement the strategic concept. Thus the nature of the organization is likewise dependent upon the nature of the strategic concept.”

As can be seen, then, in Huntington’s hierarchy, a sound strategic concept is the most important overriding element of any military service, as it is used both to garner public support for resources and to inform its organizational structure. Importantly, however, although a strategic concept is tied closely to both resources and organization, the three elements are separate and distinct. By recognizing A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower as a maritime strategic concept instead of a comprehensive strategy, its glaring lack of resource priorities and implications and concrete organizational initiatives becomes more understandable, as does its sweeping, visionary style.

We intend to bump and link when the document is released, hopefully on Wednesday. Should the document be released this week, we intend to discuss the document in full starting Monday. Bob Work and Jan van Tol deserve a lot of credit producing a thoughtful approach to the new Maritime Strategy, because with the discussion in Denver this week and the NWC symposium this weekend the time is ripe to talk strategy instead of stay focused on the shipbuilding issues in Congress.

Gene Taylors "Pure Fantasy" Comment Describes DDG-1000 Program

Capt. Jim Syring has one of the hardest jobs in the Navy, he is the DDG-1000 program manager. Of all the tough jobs it seems to me that would not be one I'd want, too many things out of ones control can ruin a career. If we are speaking strictly from a historical perspective, while it may his job, this doesn't strike me as something smart to say. This is from today's CHINFO Clips in an article by Dan Taylor and Inside the Navy.

Each lead ship costs about $3.3 billion, and a single DDG-51 in FY-09 under the Navy’s multiyear procurement contract costs about $2.1 billion, but the service expects to get the DDG-1000’s costs down to $2.3 billion by the time the fifth ship is purchased in FY-11, Syring said.

“To me, that’s an excellent trade in terms of costs versus capability, and we think that that’s the apples-to-apples comparison unit,” he said. “It’s not $3, $4, $5 billion, whatever people tend to write about. It’s just over $3 billion for each lead ship, and just over $2 billion recurring for each successive [ship].”

Syring said the DDG-1000 will be significantly more stealthy, have lower manning requirements and be able to fire at three times the range of the DDG-51.

How complicated is the DDG-1000 compared to the DDG-51? Twice as complicated? We all know about the 10 new technologies in the DDG-1000, and we know about the size increase, but what I would ask is how does all of this new stuff like new hull form and new technologies contribute to the construction simplicity? My guess is it probably doesn't.

Of the last 10 ship classes built by the Navy, 5 of the last 10 first in class ships suffered a cost overrun of 100% or more. A couple examples would include the LPD-17 with a cost overrun of 155%, but also the DDG-51 with a cost overrun of 110%. The LCS, supposed to be a simple design according to the Navy program managers themselves, is already over cost around 188%.

Furthermore, Capt. Syring is suggesting a ship where shipbuilders have the experience of 62 previous ships constructed will cost $2.1 billion, which could be true, but even if true he is suggesting a brand new ship with 10 new major technologies and 5,000 tons larger will only cost $200 million more after building only 4 ships prior, 3 when you consider there are 2 different first in class. Does that sound like a program using believable numbers that is unlikely to have cost overruns?

The way we see it there is a 50% chance the DDG-1000 will have a minimum of 100% cost increase on the first in class ships. With 50% chance of probability the cost overrun alone for the first two ships, never mind other money spent on the program, could run as high as $6.6 billion dollars. In testimony earlier this month Ronald O'Rourke and Eric Labs guessed to put the price of a new DDG-51 Flight IIA at around $1.7 billion, and Capt. Syring is suggesting a brand new variant would cost around $2.1 billion. The way we see it, there is 50% chance that with the cost overruns of the first in class DDG-1000s alone the Navy could buy nearly 4 DDG-51 Flight IIAs or at least 3 of these new variant DDG-51s.

There is an unavoidable traditional cost overrun associated with first in class ships, and looking at the numbers Capt. Syring is distributing to the media, it is not very difficult to see why there are so many skeptics there won't be a big cost overrun with the DDG-1000. Does anyone believe the DDG-1000 is not going to have major cost overruns? The Navy's cost estimate for DDG-1005 is only $200 million less than what they claim a new DDG-51 costs, and we are supposed to believe that isn't a red flag for a 100% cost overrun, which history tells us has a 50-50 shot of happening anyway?

I don't know if DDG-51s are a suitable substitute for DDG-1000s, but there are clearly some bright red flags here with the DDG-1000 that helps explain why Congress is looking for other solutions. Does anyone have any reason to believe the numbers Capt. Syring is offering? I admit I find this depressing, Gene Taylor called it "pure fantasy" and I think reasonable people who look at what is being suggested would agree.

Observing the Sea Base Off Liberia

I don't know if the African Partnership Station Public Affairs office is reading the blog, but if you are we appreciate you being responsive to our request for more information, detailed information, and excellent information in covering the Sea Basing operation off Liberia. We credit Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class (SW/AW) Elizabeth Merriam for this excellent contribution to the Sea Basing discussion.

The INLS is a redesign of a floating dock system originally used during World War II. Composed of smaller component links the system pieces can lock together to create ferries, causeway piers, or roll-on, roll-off discharge facilities to transport cargo and equipment from ship to shore while leaving a minimal footprint tailored to the individual mission.

The construction began aboard container & roll-on/roll-off ship USNS Lance Cpl. Roy M. Wheat (T-AK-3016) when various commands from Naval Beach Group 2 worked together to crane the links off of the ship and combine them into their final structures...

Once the construction on the INLS components was completed the discharge facility was transported to container & roll-on/roll-off ship USNS 2nd Lt. John Bobo (T-AK-3008) where it was loaded with Marine Corps vehicles...

The vehicles were then transported to the staging deck aboard amphibious dock landing ship USS Fort McHenry (LSD 43) where the ship's crew and the members of Assault Craft Unit 2, piloting the roll-on, roll off discharge facility, would attempt to dock an INLS structure in a well deck for the first time...

Once the Sailors secured the discharge facility in the well deck members of the 4th Marine Logistics Group simply drove the vehicles off the platform rolling directly into the staging area.

While Fort McHenry's crew worked with the discharge facility, John Bobo moored next to the INLS causeway. As part of the exercise, Marines reloaded the platform and the discharge facility and departed Fort McHenry to rendezvous with John Bobo, again exhibiting the ability of the INLS to dock with an amphibious vessel to transport cargo from ship to ship. Once the roll-on, roll-off discharge facility and causeway ferries were attached to the causeway, High Speed Vessel 2 Swift moored next to John Bobo, where ready receive Marine vehicles were transported to ship to shore.

This is the first time INLS has been used successfully at sea to transport cargo from ship-to-ship and ship-to-shore. During the rest of WATC the INLS will be used to aid in transporting humanitarian assistance supplies to Monrovia as part of the APS contribution to the area.

I've admittedly butchered an excellent story, so I encourage people to read the story without my cut outs, particularly as I think some of the details offered in the interviews tell the 'rest of the story.' For our purposes though we remain focused on the process for now.

From our perspective, observing the news reports and admiring the photography, it appears the Improved Navy Lighterage System (INLS) has demonstrated an amazing degree of capability for Sea Basing operations. As we previously covered, the West Africa Training Cruise (WATC) 08 will continue until April 5th, which we believe means the Sea Base built with the INLS will remain constructed for another week supporting humanitarian operations before being broken down. As some commenter's have previously noted, the port infrastructure in Monrovia is subpar, at best, and almost certainly not of a condition to support the USNS Lance Cpl. Roy M. Wheat (T-AK-3016) or USNS Lance Cpl. Roy M. Wheat (T-AK-3016).

This demonstration leveraging the INLS has thoroughly impressed us, bringing together the combinations of well decks, large Ro/Ro prepositioning ships, and a high speed vessel shallow draft connector has changed our perspective regarding the possibilities of Sea Basing, not only for peacetime operations but also for warfighter operations. With selective offload in the future, we see the potential to leverage amphibious assault ships for multiple assaults, simply reloading Marine Corp equipment from a secure, remote location at sea.

The interconnecting nature of the ferries, causeway piers, and roll-on, roll-off discharge facilities sparks our imagination in regards to potential. In the excellent coverage to date, we observe the only thing missing is a photo from above to get an idea regarding the size of the INLS causeway pier system constructed.

Roughead Discusses Reducing the Number of Sailors on Warships

In general we see both sides of the primary argument, and we think it is an interesting discussion. We don't necessarily agree or disagree on the issue for the same reasons as most regarding reductions in sailors though. Roughead wants to reduce crew sizes on warships, and we understand his reason is budgetary in nature.

“There’s no question that crew sizes have got to come down,” he said. “We, frankly, are not aggressive enough in employing the technologies that allow us to take people off ships. It’s largely a cultural thing we’ve got to break through ... and we can do it, I’m confident.”

Roughead said he thought smaller crew sizes were a top feature on the Navy’s new generation of warships, including the Zumwalt-class destroyers — which, although they’re the Navy’s largest new surface combatants since World War II, have a projected crew of 142 — and the littoral combat ships, which will be crewed by 40 sailors who’ll be given multiple jobs.

Roughead said he didn’t have specific goals yet for how much he’d like to reduce crew sizes on so-called “legacy ships” that the Navy plans to upgrade, but he said “my objective will be get it down to the number that allows us to maintain combat effectiveness and provide for the safety and security of the ship.”

“In the past, we’ve had some initiatives underway but they had a hard time taking through,” Roughead said. “In my tenure, I intend to be a little on the bold side.”

Despite the fact his reasoning is driven primarily by the bean counters, there really is an interesting 'other' discussion with this issue. In general we agree with both sides of the argument, and don't pick sides based on those two camps. We simply do not have evidence, other than what history tells us, regarding the number of sailors required to support damage control efforts.

In favor of reducing crew sizes is the need for the Navy to save money. There is a camp within the Navy that believes damage control equipment has become robust enough to be effective in wartime, and apparently damage control and survivability are not sacrificed by large reductions in crew sizes. Against the reduction of crew sizes are reminders of past experiences where damage control required many, many continuous difficult hours by very large crews, even on smaller frigates, to contain damage and save ships from sinking. Both the USS Stark (FFG 31) and USS Samuel B. Roberts (FFG 58) were saved due to valiant damage control efforts by the 200+ sailors and officers.

In Bradley Peniston's book No Higher Honor the damage control efforts of the USS Samuel B. Roberts (FFG 58) is well chronicled. The story describes how over 200 officers and sailors worked for 18 straight hours to keep the ship from sinking after hitting a mine in the Gulf. The argument of those against the reduction of crew sizes on warships asks an important question, how can ships without sailors to operate in shifts during damage control operations hope to keep a ship from sinking after taking serious damage? In what way has technology improved so much, at a time when armor on ships has been reduced considerably, that a ships survivability is not hampered greatly by the reduction of crews?

I think the entire damage control debate is interesting, but it is not my primary consideration when I ponder the decision by the Navy to reduce the number of sailors on ships.

If we assume that damage control and fire extinguishing technologies are vastly improved today, robust enough to sustain substantial damage and remain operational, and a reduced number of crew doesn't effect survivability of modern US Navy warships, then we believe the Navy is absolutely doing the right thing by reducing the number of sailors on warships. We believe the Navy has figured out that they do not require large numbers of sailors to fight a war at sea with modern technology. Under those conditions we agree completely with Roughead that naval warfare has become an exercise in the utilization and application of technology to strike the enemy effectively first, and manpower is not a primary consideration for meeting those conditions if sailors are not required for damage control.

However, as we review the Maritime Strategy and apply the lessons of peacemaking operations including those we are learning from the Marines, we are constantly reminded that for peacemaking operations manpower is a hard requirement. We observe a constant in modern warfare, on land and at sea, that unmanned systems are force enablers for warfighter operations. We also observe another constant, on land and at sea, that manpower is the force enabler for peacemaking operations.

As Network Centric Warfare in the present and future envisions distributed unmanned platforms dispersed to perform fleet scouting operations in wartime to reduce the time in the C2 kill chain, we believe that under a peacetime Maritime Strategy, if it is to be successfully executed, it will ultimately be the distribution and utilization of manned platforms to establish the social presence for establishing stability and security in troubled regions.

With the reduction of sailors on warships, we observe that the US Navy intends to increase distribution through unmanned systems via platforms like the Littoral Combat Ship. We believe that such a plan ultimately will not be as effective as currently envisioned, because it fails to increase the human element required for peacemaking operations. Presence is determined by interaction between local populations and the Navy, and not determined by the interaction of a robotic system and the local population. When it is all said and done, the presence of an unmanned system can not substitute for sailors in peacetime operations, as it cannot deliver the support and assistance that is outlined as guidance in the Maritime Strategy. In this regard, we believe the assumed increase to capability offered by unmanned systems is flawed in its desired effect, because while it will add tremendous capability to warfighting, a robotic system cannot substitute for the sailor in peacemaking.

This is why we believe large motherships and small surface combatants is a better model under the Navy's Maritime Strategy than small motherships (LCS) and large surface combatants (DDG-1000). As unmanned networks will enable the warfighter in the future, we believe the development of large, distributed manned networks at sea is the holy grail of peacemaking operations in the future. Due to the nature of the environment at sea, we acknowledge that such a network will be defined by force structure, which is also why the need for small, inexpensive fast manned platforms remains a requirement for US Naval forces today under the Maritime Strategy. In that way, we believe it is fair to suggest Streetfighter as a maritime strategic concept for fleet constitution is the desired force structure for peacemaking operations in the future.

Julian Corbett believed the object of naval warfare "must always be directly or indirectly either to secure the command of the sea or to prevent the enemy from securing it." Corbett was specifically discussing the strategic objective of a fleet for warfighting. In that spirit we observe the strategic peacemaking requirement as outlined in the Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower to be the establishment of cooperative processes that mitigates the disruption of cooperative command of the sea to promote peacetime commerce. As part of a circular theory of maritime strategy that accounts for both warfighting and peacemaking. the strategic peacemaker responsibility for the Navy exists both prior to warfare (cooperative partnerships) and after warfare (reconstitution of commerce and security), also described as the periods of time absent warfare. We observe this strategic approach to peacemaking relies upon the application of warfighter capabilities to regain command of the sea when command is lost.

In other words, while manpower may not be required to secure command of the sea or prevent the enemy from securing it, manpower will be a critical part of the requirement within the context of the maritime strategy for periods where command of the sea is assured, which ironically defines the vast majority of the operational time of the US Navy today.

We observe the Interaction Patrols (IPATS) that integrate the use of a landing craft utility (LCU) with air assets, with recent exercises in both the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea, are utilizing sailors to increase the distribution of a manned presence for VBSS operations as part of the development of these manned network theories for peacemaking operations. Due to these developments, we have a lot of faith that while the crew reduction issues remain controversial for damage control discussions, ultimately the Navy appears to realize the value of sailors to executing the Maritime Strategy. We remain interested in observing as the crew size debate continues, but rather than the damage control debate we know many have concerns about, we are more curious to see how the Navy develops its manpower strategy in the context of fleet constitution and Maritime Strategy, with the strategic execution approach, not the fleet constitution approach, being the most relevant budgetary consideration in our opinion.

Tuesday, March 25, 2024

USS Russell (DDG 59) Takes Blogging To Sea

This is what I call evolution, a clear example of someone my age leveraging the tools of my generation for a purpose never attempted before. Our good friend LCDR Chris van Avery, aka Yankee Sailor, the XO of the recently deployed USS Russell (DDG 59) has started a blog for the USS Russell (DDG 59). We love the name: TheDestroyermen, and we love the purpose.

To deliver an authentic, unvarnished, informative and entertaining account of life aboard a U.S. Navy destroyer, report on USS RUSSELL's contribution to the Global War on Terror and execution of America's Maritime Strategy, and provide insight into the character of the American Sailor.

This is a very clever idea, and something we have a great deal of interest in observing. The Navy does a lot of work behind the scenes out of view of the public and PAOs, and a blog which has the potential to be more personal can do a lot of good sharing stories normally concealed due to lack of mediums for exposure. When we have talked in the past about the Navy needing to leverage the internet to get its message out, we see this as exactly the right way. Steve Cohen may not have discussed it in his February 08 article in Proceedings, but we believe this is exactly what he was talking about when he advised the Navy on the need to talk to the public in his article Marketing is not a Dirty Word.

We see this as good for the Lincoln CSG, good for the Russell, good for the families of the sailors on the Russell, and good for the Navy. We are featuring the blog predominately on our link list for the duration of the USS Russell (DDG 59) deployment.

Good luck to Chris and those working with him in this venture, and good luck to the officers and sailors of the USS Russell (DDG 59) on this deployment. We look forward to great photography and interesting stories that give us land bound folk a taste of the salt air in the Pacific.

Picture of the Day: More Sea Basing Off Liberia

Today we feature another picture from the Sea Basing operation off Liberia. I still say this is the best Navy story the media doesn't talk about. Another great photo, but again, this picture makes me think this is a slow process.


80322-N-0193M-107 MONROVIA, Liberia (March 22, 2024) Members of Navy Cargo Handling Battalion (NCHB) 1 guide a Marine Humvee from the Marine Corps container roll on roll off ship USNS 2nd LT John P. Bobo (T-AK 3008) onto the deck of a roll-on roll-off discharge facility as part of West Africa Training Cruise 08, a sea basing initiative in conjunction with Africa Partnership Station. U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Elizabeth Merriam (Released)

SC-21 Got It Right, But Got It Backwards

Defense Daily has a fascinating article in its Defense Watch feature that includes part of an interview with Admiral Roughead. The article was included in todays Navy Information Clips. It starts with something I can't praise Adm. Roughead enough for saying.

The Navy has put a great deal of time and effort into thinking about its future and how it can deliver on the maritime strategy, CNO Adm. Gary Roughead tells Defense Daily. "If we really believe that that is the best path ahead for our future, then those things that we buy we should be able to link to what I always refer to as the six capabilities. And I challenge folks that work for me that when they are working on a program they should be able to say 'I can support this capability," he says. "Ideally, I'd like to be able to say if I buy this thing I can support capabilities one through three, or whatever. But if they are saying I am going to buy this and I don't know how it fits into the capabilities we are espousing, it tells me two things: One, we shouldn't be buying it, and two, do we have a flaw in the strategy that needs to be examined?"
He goes on to describe an example.
Take, for example, LCS, and the capabilities that the Navy has. Roughead says the ship needs to link to the six capabilities: forward deployed, global presence, deterrence, sea control, power projection, maritime security, and disaster relief and humanitarian assistance. "I can make the case that LCS supports a forward global presence, a lot of interaction with other navies, and operating forward, which is our operational concept. Sea control, most definitely. Maritime security, absolutely. Humanitarian assistance-disaster relief, [we can] get there fast with a pretty good payload. I can say LCS blankets that pretty well," Roughead says. "Is it a deterrence platform? Probably tactically it could be, but strategically it doesn't quite fit [in]."

I may not agree with Adm. Roughead in this example, but it is a very good sign for the Navy that this is the message he is sending to the Navy. Fleet constitution needs to match strategy, and in a way I'm almost in agreement with Adm. Roughead on his assessment.

One aspect of strategy that I've been thinking about a lot lately is the process by which the Navy used to determine what form SC-21 would take for the fleet. It is our observation that within the evolutionary process that developed SC-21, only a single mistake was made, but the mistake was not obvious until it was fully understood what the final products would be. We note that the mistake was made due to a combination of process and pressures.

Ronald O'Rourke has written extensively about the war games processes at the turn of the century that substituted for the Analysis of Alternatives for the development of SC-21. This war game process was effective, it helped develop the right metrics for the future fleet. Unlike hte development process, the decision process however was conducted primarily under different conditions than it normally would have been conducted, because it was conducted primarily by the CNO and his staff, as opposed to a service level process within the context of strategy. A service level approach with the war games and other service level development processes the Navy used got the requirements for the future exactly right, but because the decision process was at the staff level, the Navy only got the application of the requirements to the fleet half right in our opinion.

The emerging requirements as outlined in Seapower 21 and expressed through the development of SC-21 called for a future fleet that included a future surface combatant including a Cruiser replacement, a mothership, an arsenal ship, and Sea Basing. This conceptual vision of Seapower 21 essentially became a list of desired metrics rather than a strategic vision of the concepts the metrics represented. In this regard we believe the process applied a set of packages with properties that reflect the desired metrics explained in Seapower 21 (stealth, speed, modularity, etc) for the future fleet, but we observe this process somehow became a tactical vision based on desired properties for ships rather than a strategic vision based on desired capabilities for the fleet.

Pressures mounted to define SC-21 due to an emerging gap observed in the future regarding numbers of surface combatants, so CNO Clark came under pressure to rapidly field surface combatants. Because the focus of surface combatants at the time was on the cruiser replacements, a process that was still years away, we believe the mistake was made within the CNO staff level process as they determined that the small mothership could substitute as a small combatant. What emerged from SC-21 was the DDG-1000 (surface combatant), the LCS (mothership), the SSGN (arsenal ship), and the Sea Basing concept still under development. As we look back we observe the CNO staff got it half right, the SSGN makes an excellent arsenal ship and the Sea Basing concept is very promising, however instead of a large surface combatant and a small mothership, we believe that had the Navy done a true Analysis of Alternatives or had not been rushed due to time, the Navy would have recognized that the way ahead was a large mothership and a small surface combatant which would have had the effect of applying the major technology upgrade of the era (motherships) and providing balance to the future surface combatant fleet (small combatants).

We observe that until the Navy recognizes this is where the mistake with SC-21 occurred, Adm Roughead will continue talking about the need for balance within the fleet. We note that even with the LCS coming online, the Navy is not by any realistic metric increasing the size of the surface combatant fleet. The LCS is an unrated ship, and specifically because it is not really a surface combatant at all (it is a mothership!) it is simply another contribution to the flotilla, and does not offer the balance that Adm Roughead continues to discuss.

The large mothership is not simply something we casually claim is important, rather we base our assessment on the application of the strategical and tactical ideas of our time, and support it with a historical basis matched with strategy.

We previously noted that as the LCS takes attrition in combat, the scouting capability of the total battle force is diminished, even as the high value units survive. This is counter to how historically the trends for scouting has been to bring the role of scouting back to the battle line, for example scout planes from cruisers and battleships in WWII, but also aircraft from aircraft carriers and more powerful electronic sensors used by surface combatants. Captain Hughes, who we consider one of the great strategists of our time, stresses continuously the importance of scouting in modern warfare, and in this regard many of the theories behind the streetfighter concept were primarily intended to enable the total scouting capacity of the battle fleet. We note that the trend the LCS changes in a major way is to push scouting back out to the flotilla, something that hasn't been done in wartime for the surface fleet since WWI, nearly 100 years ago. While we don't disagree this is possible, we observe that with the LCS it may not be possible to fully achieve this to the degree desired, because the LCS will require assistance to accomplish this role because the small LCS lacks the ability to maintain the maintenance upkeep of the deployable systems that contributes to this scouting role.

As I have discussed in the past, while the LCS is often attributed to Adm Cebrowski, I don't believe Adm Cebrowski would be a supporter of the LCS today, just the concept (unmanned mothership) behind it. One would think if Cebrowski was a LCS supporter, he would have included something even similar to it in his OFT fleet plan, but he didn't. In my study of the concepts promoted by Cebrowski and Hughes, it appears that they both concluded motherships should be big, because in application the size of the mothership determines the size of the deployable unmanned network it can support. We are already seeing hints that there will be problems down the road with the LCS, its small size prohibits the ship from being able to deploy the necessary equipment for the currently envisioned mission modules. More problematic is that the LCS offers almost no room for mission modules to grow, meaning the Navy is building a mothership too small to support the large enabling networks the mothership is designed to contribute as the key technology upgrade in 21st century naval warfare.

While we are highly critical of the Littoral Combat Ship on this blog, we still believe it is very important they get built. While we do not believe they will ultimately match strategy, just like we do not believe the DDG-1000 will match strategy, we support the Navy as it builds both the pair of LCS and a pair of DDG-1000s to move the technologies forward. We believe that while an Analysis of Alternatives can be useful, there is nothing better than the real thing for determining value of new technologies and new concepts, and among the critical technologies we see the modularity of the LCS and a number of critical technologies of the DDG-1000 as enabling for future ship classes.

Other than the CG(X) as a concept, and even as that concept appears to be less static than SC-21 first envisioned with emerging requirements like nuclear power, we believe that as the Navy continues to apply strategy and ask the questions that Adm. Roughead is asking regarding future fleet constitution the Navy will ultimately come to the conclusions that best support the future fleet. We have faith those conclusions will ultimately include a small combatant and a large mothership, based on the same metrics that the wargames and simulations early this century correctly identified as the metrics required for a 21st Century fleet.

While sometimes we give the impression otherwise, we believe the Navy has all of the metrics and concepts right, and unlike many we also believe the Navy has the strategy right, we are simply observing the application of those metrics and concepts to strategy as slightly flawed. We believe these flaws are exposing themselves as the platforms are developed under the conditions of the new strategy, and will eventually be corrected as the Navy forces itself to match fleet constitution to strategy.

Monday, March 24, 2024

Observing the Naval Surge To The Middle East

The news of naval activity from the Middle East region is beginning to reach a point of disinformation, so we think it might be time to provide analysis regarding what is going on throughout the Middle East region. In a quiet way, major naval activity is taking place that is not being highlighted in the open source, and outright ignored in the media. What we find interesting is the naval activity represents the largest Naval buildup around the Middle East region since late 2003, particularly east of the Suez Canal, however because it is not the US Navy the media is ignoring this massive buildup of force.

As we observed back in January, we predicted that by late March there would be an enormous naval surge to the Middle East region. Our predictions have proven right, but due to the nature of the naval buildup, there is very little discussion of it. There is no question the build up represents scheduled deployments and alliance naval activity of a routine nature. There is also no question that the tension level for war is growing, and we can now safely say the date being observed in the region where many expect war to break out is April 6th.

What will replace it, nearly everyone in Beirut speculated to me, is the resumption of the Hizballah-Israel war that ravaged Lebanon in the summer of 2006. Some Lebanese even have a precise date for it: April 6 — the day Israel's biggest emergency drill ever starts, when they believe the Israeli Defense Forces juggernaut will roll across the border to finish the job they should have during the 34-day conflict. Although, mind you, there's not a thread of evidence that the Israelis are really going to invade.

Robert Baer is an excellent reporter, and his TIME magazine article captures the essence of the tension currently in Lebanon. Threats of war and rumors of war currently dominate the headlines in Lebanon, and in response the government has rescheduled the presidential election once again, this time until April 22nd. Considering the degree of tension, it is legitimate to ask the question whether there will be a presidential election or whether a war will need to be fought first. The only problem with the question of war is, while it is probable all nations are ready to get it over with, nobody wants to start it. Whether war actually takes place in the region is anyones guess, but there is no question those who expect to be involved are preparing themselves.

The reason the Naval activity is not getting a lot of attention is because the enormous naval buildup around the Middle East is European, not US, in nature. For the first time since before September 11th, 2001, there are more ships from European Navies in 5th Fleet Area of Operation than ships of the US Navy, and we observe at least 4 more major French ships will either enter or return to the theater over the next few weeks. The buildup of Naval power is striking not simply in its quantity, but also in its quality, including everything from additional minesweepers, a Mine Warfare Command Vessel, the Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Illustrious (R06), and 2 large French Naval aviation ships with expeditionary capabilities.

We observe in the hyper tension environment of the Middle East that many have the expectation that a Naval buildup implies a strike against Iran could come at any time. Readers of this blog know we have no such belief, in fact until we see two MEUs operating in the Persian Gulf we are not ready to believe the US Navy would even entertain the idea of any such attack, as we believe the Navy requires two MEUs to secure the Strait of Hormuz. However, given the nature of the European naval surge not only east of the Suez Canal, but also in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, we do believe both the United States and Europe is building up a massive naval force with the intention of deterrence.

Based on some of the recent strange naval news from the region, we make the following observations based on historical patterns and evolving political events.

The story out of Iran that a submarine and a destroyer recently crossed the Suez canal has all the signs of potentially true, but as usual the Iranians are simply making news where news doesn't exist. Rather than the suggestion the USS Montpelier (SSN 765) crossed Suez, as implied with a stock photo of the USS Montpelier (SSN 765) from 2003 in this story, we believe what has actually happened is the USS Albany (SSN 753) and the USS Bulkeley (DDG 84) attached to the Nassau Expeditionary Strike Group that has been in the Mediterranean Sea crossed into the Red Sea. People might ask why Iran would think such naval movements is news, well the answer is actually pretty easy to explain.

Iran can't track modern submarines. Iran simply lacks the technology and the training necessary to track modern western submarines, and that has been the case for years now. While Russia sold Kilo submarines to Iran back in the 90s, one of the little discussed details of that deal is that it was brokered by Vice President at the time Al Gore, and Al Gore let the deal from Russia take place as long as Iran couldn't get sophisticated Russian sonar equipment. Russia wasn't offering sophisticated sonars anyway, and needed the submarine sales badly at the time, so they took the horse trade.

In effect, Iran has some of the worst sonar equipment of any Gulf nation, certainly not to the quality of Saudi Arabia or Egypt, and they simply can't detect a US submarine unless it crosses the Suez Canal. Might sound unbelievable to some, but thus is the nature of export restrictions and careful security of sonar equipment, of which most nations simply don't want to share because it exposes their own capabilities. The Chinese have written extensively about this, including their frustration with Russia who hasn't shared their most sophisticated sonar systems. Most people don't realize that small detail explains why Iran builds small mini submarines rather than large submarines, small submarines don't need sophisticated sonar while large submarines do to be effective, so it simply makes more sense for Iran to focus its domestic submarine production on what is effective.

We think it is both ironic and hilarious the Iranian news agency would put a picture of the USS Montpelier (SSN 765) in its news article, because it is a better than average bet the Iranians have absolutely no clue where the USS Montpelier (SSN 765) is. It is also a better than average bet that if the Captain of the USS Montpelier (SSN 765) raised his periscope, he could see land... in Iran.

Bottom line on the US Navy deployments, the Nassau Expeditionary Strike Group is simply doing what would be expected, and in an indirect way the Iranian news report simply highlights what would be an expected behavior for a submarine crossing the Suez, always with a destroyer escort. For the rest of the US Navy we observe the following.

The USS Nassau (LHA 4), USS Nashville (LPD 13), USS Philippine Sea (CG 58), and USS Ross (DDG 71), all part of the Nassau ESG, have taken up station in the eastern Mediterranean Sea while tensions are high. We do not speculate on the USS Ashland (LSD 48), which may head towards the east coast of Africa to do what LSDs do lately, support anti-piracy operations. The USS San Jacinto (CG 56), part of the Truman Carrier Strike Group, has been operating in the Mediterranean Sea region since it deployed with the Truman CSG last year, and remains conducting security operational training in the area. The Nassau ESG is not carrying Marines, so its mission capabilities are clearly defined as defensive and limited to being a support element for evacuation of Lebanon should hostilities break out. We believe the decision to station these ships there is intentional due to their lack of Marines, noting that the sizable UNIFIL force and enormous number of European Naval assets at sea in the Mediterranean Sea offers the Europeans credible capabilities and contingencies to support their own troops already on the ground in UNIFIL should hostilities actually break out near Israel.

As our most recent Order of Battle noted, the US has the Truman Carrier Strike Group and the Tarawa Expeditionary Strike Group in the Middle East Gulf region. Many of the Truman CSG assets are currently operating near Somalia as the African nation troops move into position. There are also a considerable number of NATO naval vessels in that region, including ships from Germany, France, Canada, the Netherlands, and Denmark as noted in our Order of Battle. While we have no confirmation whether it is happening, one pattern we have observed is the use of the regional LSD, in this case the USS Whidbey Island (LSD 41), acting as an offshore staging base for monitoring pirate activity. The USS Whidbey Island (LSD 41) will soon be replaced by the USS Oak Hill (LSD 51) in the next few weeks.

Finally, we observe the Orion 08 deployment continues in the Indian Ocean, and the force is beefing up as Harriers return to Lusty. We still find it very strange that the British force deployed with Minesweepers, but we chalk it up to a high degree of preparation related to the tensions surrounding Iran. We noted the recent news from across the pond that the British are making contingency plans should a tanker war scenario return to the Persian Gulf, but we simply don't believe Iran is that stupid. While it might sound really scary for Iran to close down the Strait of Hormuz, we don't rule out the possibility that China wouldn't turn around and invade Iran if they tried it. It is one thing to want to piss off the United States, but we believe it would be a mistake of profound miscalculation to get between China and what they see as their oil, particularly right before the Olympic games.

While we don't see how or where war is coming from, we find it noteworthy we are in the midst of the largest European naval surge to the Middle East in the 21st century and nobody is talking about it, and we would bet many of the worlds sharpest military observers barely noticed it.

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