As Piracy Slows in Somalia, EagleOne Notes Why

The frequency of piracy attacks off the Horn of Africa appears to be down in January 2009, and while governments may be tempted to suggest the attacks are down due to a growing international naval presence in the region, EagleOne is noting a more realistic set of circumstances that can explain unfolding events, by noting the weather.

I could be wrong, but the way I read that chart above is that the sea winds in the Gulf of Aden are running 10 -25 knots - a little steep, I would think, for the small boats operated by the pirates. I don't think I'll be drinking any champagne over the success of the counter pirate operations just yet . . .

Eagleone posts a chart of wind patterns to go along with his analysis, check it out. In the comments, Mr. Michael Murrell, Director of Operations, Training and Deployment for International Ships Support Group (ISSG), a maritime security company that provides security services to insure best practices for protection for shipping companies, notes another valid reason. There have been a number of ships released by pirates over the last several days.

Both points in conjunction explain a lot. Weather, in particular wind and sea state, make it very difficult for pirates to get in position to hijack a ship, as control of the attacking vessel is critical to the tactics of scaling a ship. Eagleone cites information from an ONI report from October that further discusses the influence of weather on pirate operations.

But Mr. Michael Murrell's point is also important, and he is observing patterns in motion. We have seen a pattern in the past that upon the release of ships a downtime period occurs followed by a surge in attacks. It is speculation as to why the downtime occurs, but some have speculated the reasons range from a 'lessons learned' period where pirates actually share lessons with one another to develop better tactics, while others have noted the downtime is assoicated with a spending period where pirates seek out ways to spend their new cash, sometimes in the black market in Somalia for better equipment to execute their pirate trade.

The combination of poor weather conditions off the Horn of Africa and a number of ships being released better explain why there is a small lull in pirate activity off Somalia. The increase in naval force does not explain it, there have been very few instances where naval activity has resulted in either an action that uses lethal force or capture of pirates that would deter pirate activities, so until pirates are either being killed or captured, it is difficult to suggest the coalition naval forces are having impact... yet.

It would appear there is a Reuters reporter reading Eagleone, because the analysis today notes weather being a factor even as the article does not explain why or how they came to that conclusion. The article isn't a loss though, it notes that the pirates in the Central region have grown from six companies to nine companies, and suggests they have scouts out monitoring coalition warships as they develop tactics. This is interesting, because in last weeks Pentigon press briefing from 5th Fleet, Admiral Gortney noted the expanding capabilities of the pirates in Northern Somalia as being primarily responsible for the increase in attacks. If both Reuters and Admiral Gortney are discussing two different groups of pirates, which appears to be the case, we are soon to see an expansion of pirate attacks to coincide with the next surge, meaning it is about to get ugly out there.

When one observes the timing of the various events taking place, I think we potentially on the verge of major naval operations off the coast of Somalia, and it will be interesting to see how long CTF-151 consists of only 3 ships. I would expect that number to grow, not only in the form of coalition ships but in the number of US Navy ships as well.