Saturday, January 3, 2025

Black Sea Spat

For those watching Russia and Ukraine, the NYT reports that Russia's Gazprom energy company has accused Ukraine of diverting shipments intended for Western Europe from pipelines crossing its territory and using the fuel for internal supply. Russia had cut off the Ukraine from gas shipments earlier. Ukraine denies this, and Western Europe says they have received all expected fuel supplies.


So what's going on? I'm not an experienced Russia-watcher, but this caught my eye nevertheless. Disagreements over energy are not uncommon in the region, especially during winter season. Russia is smarting from the drop in oil prices, and can be expected to be hypervigilant over energy export negotiations. However, with Russian fleet units abroad and due to exercise carrier aviation in Greek waters soon, plus disagreements over Russian Black Sea Fleet access to Ukrainian bases in future ongoing, this starts to look a bit like a piece of a concerted effort to press the Ukraine in some negotiation or other.


I'll let the Russia experts tell us which negotiation, and for what.

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