Wednesday, January 21, 2024

India/Russia SSN deal now in question?

At least one Indian press source (one which I don't have a reliability rating for) has indicated that the deal for India to lease two Akula-II (or Project 971I Schucka-B) class SSNs may be in jeopardy. The stated cause is the accident aboard the Nerpa, which has (according to the Indians quoting Russians) destroyed the ability of the shipyard to field a qualified crew for testing - and the fact that the yard is 'running short of cash.'

What?

Apparently, in order to reconstitute a proper trials crew, 'refresher courses of up to a year' would be required. The second reason is more telling to me, however - given the prior elbow negotiations over the cost of the Gorshkov/Vikramaditya, this looks to this outsider an awful lot like an attempt to gain bargaining leverage over the cost overruns on the carrier deal. India wants the Nerpa and any sister boats in order to jumpstart its own SSN/SSBN force training and engineering establishment, so the ramifications go beyond a simple unit acquisition.

I will be looking for further explicit linkages between the two deals (or further explicit descriptions of the two as 'one deal') with discussion of budgets, cash shortages and/or payments to bolster my confidence that this is the case. But this is what it looks like here.

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