Interesting Report on Regional Iranian Military Expansion

I'm not the biggest fan of Reza Shafa, his record isn't perfect, but he has reported similar information in the past that has turned out confirmed accurate at a later date. Either way, this is certainly worth noting if true.

According to intelligence reports, in recent weeks, the mullahs’ regime has installed long-range and anti-aircraft missiles, and has deployed a number of members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the outskirts of Eritrea’s Port of Assab near the Red Sea. This initiative by the mullahs takes place in the context of agreements the regime had signed in Asmera with the government of Eritrea.

These forces and equipment have been transferred to the region using the regime’s submarines. The agreement and the deployment of forces and long-range missiles in the Port of Assab have been carried out under the guise of renovating the port’s oil refinery (which is an old facility). The mullahs’ regime is operating there under the cover of refining crude oil in the port’s refinery. It has also crafted phony documents in this regard.

I have no idea if the specifics are true or not, but it does match the operational style of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and why the United States lists them as a terrorists network. The IRGC is an excellent example of a state sponsored organization with autonomy that has tremendous impact with our nations policy towards Iran, even as virtually every action by this group is ignored and often denied by the Iranian government.

They are hardly unique as an organization of this type, Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is another example, an example many will become more familiar with over the next several months as the Obama administration begins looking at long term solutions for our national challenges in Afghanistan.

I don't know if I buy into the use of submarines for smuggling military arms to Eritrea from Iran, but it is certainly possible and very much worth noting. Considering the pirate activity of the last year sending it by ship wouldn't have been very bright. The article goes on with some analysis.

But, the question remains: What does revamping an old refinery have anything to do with the deployment of missiles? This was the question that prompted doubts and suspicions regarding the regime’s actions. Some intelligence sources indicated that by installing military equipment and forces in Eritrea’s Port of Assab, the mullahs’ regime actually intends to exert control over the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, situated 3 km from Eritrea and Yemen. The Bab-el-Mandeb strait (“Gate of Tears”), is the closest spot to the Gulf of Aden, which connects the Suez Canal and the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, and is in fact the passageway for oil tankers and cargo ships in the African and Southwest Asian regions. As such, this area is of exceptional strategic importance. The regime’s objective is to cause disturbances and sabotage oil tankers of oil-rich countries of the region, such as Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and African countries, in the event that during a potential military conflict, the Strait of Hormuz is closed off to oil tankers of the Persian Gulf.

A lot of people give me lip service when I discuss Iran, sometimes for good reason, but I want to offer a counterpoint so readers better understand where I'm coming from. Of all the countries in the Middle East, and I include Israel, I think Iran demonstrates strategic thinking in action consistently at a higher level than anyone else, and often runs circles around their competitors including the US. Iran really does plan and execute plans well, and whether the topic is nuclear weapon development or Iraq, I think the results validate it.

It would not surprise me at all to learn Iran is dispersing a regional military capability, particularly with states like Eritrea who the United States does not have very good relations with. With that said, submarines are moving long-range missiles? Hmm, what kind? I don't buy submarines are moving ballistic missile parts, I'd have to see evidence (Google Earth anyone) first, but I do believe it is possible Iran could be moving anti-ship missiles which is kind of a scary thought.

After all, Iran did give them to Hezbollah. I think the type of missiles is important towards the verification and accuracy of this report, because if they are anti-ship missiles, considering all those international frigates operating in the region, it might be a good idea to go public with that information as a public service... assuming its true.