When Guessing Become News

The speculation regarding the intercept of an Iranian owned ship in the Red Sea is growing, and not due to any additional facts. The new twist to this story is that the US Navy ran a covert op, which is interesting. I wouldn't bet on it.

The interception of an Iranian arms ship by the US Navy in the Red Sea last week likely was conducted as a covert operation and is being played down by the US military due to the lack of a clear legal framework for such operations, an American expert on Iran told The Jerusalem Post on Saturday evening.

International media reported that an Iranian-owned merchant vessel flying a Cypriot flag was boarded early last week by US Navy personnel who discovered artillery shells on board.

The ship was initially suspected of being en route to delivering its cargo to smugglers in Sinai who would transfer the ammunition to Hamas in Gaza, but the US Navy became uncertain over the identity of the intended recipient since "Hamas is not known to use artillery," The Associated Press cited a defense official as saying.

The most likely scenario us that the ships master allowed the boarding party on the ship, and did not expect them to find any weapons on board. The reason why that is the most likely scenario is because the ship was essentially released and allowed to continue on, and will supposedly be searched by Egypt before the ship is allowed through the Suez canal. If it was a serious incident, or a 'covert op' as is now being claimed, we wouldn't know anything about this incident at all.

What I see here is Israeli media that can't get good information out of CENTCOM, and is now guessing to keep this in the news. Can't get information about ongoing operations from CENTCON? Get in line. CENTCOM doesn't like sharing information with the Pentagon because the Pentagon is a leak machine, so it is hardly surprising people in the Pentagon have no idea what is going on. It also isn't surprising CENTCOM isn't releasing any details, they never do. When Admiral Gortney held his press conference at the Pentagon a few weeks ago, that briefing ended up being a wealth of information. Why? Because it was the first time we got real details about what is happening in the 5th Fleet AOR in months.

What is the story here? The CTF-151 flagship is doing a CTF-150 function, which isn't surprising because CTF-150 is more important to the interests of the US than CTF-151. The other story is the media is getting paranoid because CENTCOM doesn't run around talking about operations while still underway, like the Pentagon will for example. Being patient and understanding first reports usually get it wrong is about all we can do while we see what this story is really all about.