Observing a Potential North Korea Missile Launch

The latest saber rattling news from North Korea comes in the form of preparation for a ballistic missile launch. Today there is a story on this development worth noting.

The U.S. military stepped up its monitoring of North Korea this week amid concerns about a possible missile launch by Pyongyang, a U.S. military official said on Tuesday.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the U.S. military decided on Monday to move "assets" including naval vessels into monitoring position in the Pacific. The official declined to provide further details.

U.S. Pacific Command, which is responsible for U.S. military interests on the Korean Peninsula, acknowledged that it was monitoring activities in North Korea but declined to comment on specific operations.

"We're watching those things closely with all the assets we have," Pacific Command spokesman Marine Major Bradley Gordon said. "We've got all sorts of sensors all around the area. But I won't say what or where they are."

Nightwatch suggests the missile will be prepared to inject fuel within a month. So.. what are we looking at.

Well for starters, interesting timing. While there has been the usual Dear Leader temper tantrum activity coming from North Korea ever since Barack Obama's inauguration, the missile launch news is relatively new, and appears to be an escalation in an effort to get some attention with previous rhetoric being unsuccessful. The timing of the missile launch also appears to be lining up.

The AP article notes the Navy is moving ships into position. Well, a quick guess based on recent headlines suggests the BMD ships currently deployed from Pearl Harbor will be heading that way, particularly with CARAT drawing resources to SE Asia.

We know that next month, the Stennis CSG will almost certainly be in the region to participate in the annual Key Resolve/Foal Eagle multinational exercises off the Korean Peninsula. It looks like North Korea is trying to have its missile ready to launch in time for the exercises, and if pattern holds true, North Korea will complain very loudly about the exercises taking place. It is important to remember that when North Korea conducts a ballistic missile launch, they usually launch several short range missiles as well.

It probably isn't a good thing that North Korea appears to be preparing their missile launches for a time when a number of nations will be holding a massive maritime exercise off the South Korean coast. Random, irrational behavior with major weapon systems is a recipe for accidents and miscalculations, and if a missile is launched anywhere near a naval vessel of another country, any number of scenarios could develop that leads to a miscalculation, thus international incident.