Taiwan Bolsters Aerial ASW/ASuW

Defense News is reporting that Taiwan has finally managed to consummate a deal for 12 P-3C Orion ASW aircraft. This deal has been tied up in politics since 2001, when President Bush authorized an arms sale to the island state which included the Orions. Acquiring the P-3s will bolster Taiwan's flagging long-range ASW capabilities.

It's difficult to say how this deal was affected by or has affected other armaments moves by the PRC, given the long delay time. However, this is just another incremental move in the Southeast Asia subsurface arms race that has gained a great deal of steam in recent years. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the region's tensions were best characterized by the phrase "Quick, everybody buy an Air Force!" As more capable and newer strike aircraft have proliferated across the region, the next moves - moves of more long-term and strategic military competition - have involved submarines and ASW.

On the other hand, it should be remembered that Taiwan, unlike most SE Asian nations, is playing in a dyadic game, not a multipolar one. They have essentially one defense scenario - the obvious one. Although the utility of the P-3s in an all-out war with the mainland is dubious over the middle to long term, since runways will surely be early targets, they do offer some protection against blockade warfare. In addition, I'll be looking to see what (if any) surface search systems or upgrades are included in the buy. Surface search, aided by the long loiter time of the platform, is one of its two main strengths. What associated arms (if any) we can find in the deal will offer even better visibility - although Taiwan already has air-launched Harpoons, so we may not see any additional rounds go over the transom.
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