Understanding the Moment is Now

Over at the Small Wars Journal they are hosting “Ten Questions with Thomas P.M. Barnett” (PDF) by Mark Safranski regarding his new book Great Powers: America and the World after Bush.

In Chapter 6, you discuss the evolution of the new Counterinsurgency Field Manual in detail and favorably cite such figures as Gen. Wallace, Gen. Mattis, Sarah Sewall and John Nagl. I know that you have been following the ongoing debate over COIN between Col. Nagl and Col. Gian Gentile. How important is this debate and where do you stand?

The debate is crucial because, unless we get off this additive mindset by which we add terrorists on top of regional rogues and then add that mess on top of “near-peer competitors” and then add that mess to undue fears of nuclear proliferation, we will underserve the market that most needs our attention right now—subnational violence. Globalization is simply remapping a lot of fake states out there, so we need to get good at dealing with failed states and insurgencies. When we do, the world will invariably present fewer and fewer locations where transnational terrorists and global insurgents can find sanctuary. The inevitable re-mapped world will be far more easily integrated into the global economy, meeting the needs of the rising great powers of our age. If we manage that process badly, though, eventually those rising great powers will be forced to make those interventions on their own. If that happens it will likely trigger competitive rivalries that will serve nobody’s long-term purposes.

Inside our own military, you want a shift of resources to the small wars world (SysAdmin duties, I call them) away from our big-war Leviathan force, because the more that history forces that mis-equiped big-war force to engage in such activities, the weaker that force becomes and the more it invites rivalry from other great powers. So I argue that a shift to a small-wars focus (not totally, of course, but suitably given the current and future workload staring us in the face) is actually what saves the Leviathan instead of “ruining” it, as some claim.

I want that Leviathan to stay strong and maintain a high barrier to entry to the marketplace called great-power war. I see the current environment, and the workload presented, as endangering this unique asset. Thus, the need to switch sufficient resources to the small-wars crowd. But this notion of keeping our powder dry and playing down our participation in globalization’s advance and the many small-war situations it engenders . . . that, to me, is a dangerously self-fulfilling prophecy—as in, if you want great-power war, then go ahead and ignore your current SysAdmin duties.

So no, it’s not some binary choice but a reasoned balancing that today says, “favor the small-wars crowd. Give them what they need to do the job.

The Navy doesn't have a Col. Nagl or Col. Gian Gentile, or TLC Yingling, or any such mid level officer willing to play the role of the modern A.T. Mahan; which I believe in the 21st century would represent an evangelist advocating a vision that the Navy needs an Economy B force.

I believe one of the great side effects of globalization is how the major interconnected global economies act as a buffer against the tendency towards major power war, much like how MAD theory of nuclear war did the same during the cold war. The debate regarding what Gates means when he says "balance" and what the word means to the Navy is overdue. Balance doesn't mean balancing available budget resources, it means balancing capabilities to meet with the spectrum of challenges facing our nation: both ends of the spectrum. I believe when it comes to the Navy, high intensity conflict will always be more expensive in terms of costs for technology, but low intensity conflict will require a higher cost associated with manpower.

The Navy is in a unique position to wipe the slate clean, and go forward with a new force structure and a new approach to solving 21st century problems at both the low and high end of conflict beginning in FY 2010. Will they seize the moment?

Great Powers: America and the World after Bush is the book for people looking to understand why now is the moment to inject a grand vision into our nations future. America is a great country, we should be seeking to prove it again and again.