Surge of the Intellectuals

This morning I read Bryan McGrath's reflections of the Navy as he looks back one year since retirement. He sounds frustrated. Bryan had an up front and personal view of the Navy for 21 years, and as a going away present, Bryan was one of the key contributors to the final version of the Navy's maritime strategy. The results of his work has been mostly unidentifiable.

Unlike Bryan who sits in the expensive seats among former peers when viewing the Navy, I sit up in the peanut gallery and watch from the high view. I sometimes think this gives me a better advantage than those who are close to the Navy, because I get to see a bigger picture enabled primarily from the position of being networked globally, and positioned externally. There are serious changes taking place right now, and I think Bryan is too close to the field, even in retirement, to see these changes unfolding.

Armchair Generalist recently summed up the latest round of appointments by Gates for the COCOM positions. His list is:

• CENTCOM - Army General David Petraeus
• PACOM - Admiral Robert Willard
• EUCOM - Admiral James Stavridis
• NORTHCOM - Air Force General Victor Renuart
• SOUTHCOM - Air Force Lt Gen Douglas Fraser
• AFRICOM - Army General William Ward
• JFCOM - Marine General James Mattis
• STRATCOM - Air Force General Kevin Chilton
• SOCOM - Admiral Eric Olsen
• TRANSCOM - Air Force General Duncan McNabb

I am not really surprised by either the promotion of Admiral Willard to PACOM or the move of Admiral Stavridis to EUCOM, and I want to suggest that both moves are intentional as part of a long term plan that appears to be unfolding. I want to note they both have something in common, both of them are still innovating and both are described by those who know them as mavericks. I am getting a sense, and I may be incorrect, but a general sense that Admiral Willard is being positioned to be the next CNO, and Admiral Stavridis is being groomed to be the next Chairman of the Joint Chiefs.

After reading Thomas Ricks book I have begun asking a few questions regarding what ties together the odd but deliberate personnel moves I have been getting information about within the Navy. In general terms, at the 0-5 and 0-6 level there has been quiet movement of some the real intellectual power in that group to position very smart people into places that appear, from this outsiders point of view, to be where they can influence real change in the Navy. There also appears to be some Admirals involved in this quiet transition, and for the lack of a better term, I'm going to call it a surge of the Navy intellectuals.

When I saw this list today, I realized that there is realistic movement on the civilian side that is starting to add up with what is happening on the Navy side. The Army has seen the intellectuals, also made up of mavericks, rise up and grab Iraq by the reigns after being in a haze. The Navy has its own version of a haze right now in Washington, and my sense is that the Navy's own intellectuals, those who write and publish but also either have extraordinary credentials or a sense of maverick in them, are being moved around a bit quietly behind the scenes. Those in the fleet may have noticed this.

I don't have a feel for whether ADM Mullen or ADM Roughead is involved in this quiet shift taking place in personnel, but I do get a sense that ADM Stavridis has some sort of connection in the movements being observed, most likely by recommendation and guidance as opposed to placement. I will not name specific names of the mavericks, because I might hurt someone if I do, but if you are one who has been wondering if it is even possible for the Navy to evolve itself during this period of prolonged peace my answer to that rhetorical question would be: yes.

Given the recent appointments we will have to wait and see what the promotion boards decide, but my sense is we are soon to see major shifts in the Navy, with everything pointing to real change beginning either next year or the year after. A crusader movement of mavericks and intellectuals ready to compete their ideas is building inside the Navy, and no one is going to be able to stop it.

I for one am becoming more encouraged by what this means long term for the Navy.