More on Varyag + news from Brazil

I've actually had these photos for a few days, but have been too busy to post them. They've been posted in other places already, but I thought I could offer some of my thoughts. Here are the photos (The final one is a rough blueprint of Varyag):





The first thing I noticed was that there are 3 large cranes around Varyag, which means a lot of resources could be devoted to do the intended work. We also see some scaffolding around the island, which should allow workers to access the flight deck and do their work. The entire right side of the flight deck seem to be open. That's where the VLS for shipwreck missiles used to be located. Looks like a lot of work is going to be done there. One of the past theories is that an engine could lowered through there to provide for its propulsion. I guess we will just have to wait and see what they intend to do with it. In the first picture, you can see a circled block there. A lot of people are speculating that it could be a catapult, I think its dimensions don't seem to fit that theory. Again, another thing to watch out for. The other interesting thing is that the huge containers on the flight deck of the Varyag from the move have all been removed now. Maybe all of that stuff have already been installed. If that's the case, then they really have been working pretty fast on it.

That's about all from Varyag front, I'm sure we will get more photos soon.

The other news that came out recently is the visit by the Brazilian President Lula to Beijing this past week. A bunch of deals were signed, but the big news actually came from an interview with Nelson Jobim, the Minister of defense for Brazil. You can see the interview in Portuguese here. The part that interested me translated as follows (using Google translate):

Defense @ Net - A range of military approaches to China. Como o Senhor vê essa aproximações com a China no âmbito do Ministério da Defesa? How do you see this approach with China under the Ministry of Defense?
The rapprochement with China is more directed toward the Navy. They (the Chinese) want the Navy of Brazil is the point of connection for the creation of the Chinese Navy. China has no navy. Also we will bring Chinese official here. Of course they have to learn Portuguese. They will stage the aircraft carrier São Paulo. The Chinese are acquiring aircraft carriers to project power in the region, a situation completely different from ours. I am going to China from September or October.

I think the important part is that Jobim is going to China this fall to basically finalize a deal that will allow Chinese naval pilots to train from Sao Paulo. You can see a little bit about the Sao Paulo aircraft carrier in its Wikipedia Page. I think it's kind of interesting that they chose Sao Paulo, because it's basically the only aircraft carrier with catapult and not serving for a country that current has military embargo on China. US will obviously not let PLAN train on its carriers and French navy probably will not either due to the embargo. I guess it shows that China is looking to build a CATOBAR carrier pretty soon. Otherwise, there really isn't any need to train on Sao Paulo right now. On the other hand, it's kind of curious that China is also planning to use NITKA training center, because that's probably preparing pilots for STOBAR carrier. Obviously, PLAN would be able to do more realistic training on Sao Paulo, but it would only have limited training schedule on Sao Paulo compared to NITKA. So, it looks like PLAN is just covering all the basis with its plans. On the whole, my guess is that Varyag will probably not equip any catapult, but the home built carriers will.

The other interesting part is that PLAN actually told Brazil that its building multiple carriers for power projection. We also heard a while back where a PLAN officer joked with USN about splitting power in Pacific Ocean (and I think there are definitely elements in PLAN that thinks this way). Also a couple of years ago, I remember reading Admiral Keating saying that PLAN officials were very forward about their intention to build aircraft carrier in private conversations (this was at a time when China was still sort of denying their aircraft carrier ambitions). I think this kind of conversation really contrasts with Chinese government's official statements. It seems like PLAN officers are more relaxed and transparent with their intention in private conversations through military exchanges than their civilian bosses are willing to be. In the past couple of years, I've seen many politicians and military personnel complaining about lack of reciprocal invitations from PLA after they had been fairly transparent toward visiting PLA delegation. I really think that PLA is still learning how to be more open with their intentions and such. And it is clear that contacts with other countries are helping them to build trust and understanding the importance of transparency. We are seeing PLA becoming more transparent recently (with its white paper and the 60th anniversary review). Only positive military engagements can direct PLA to become more transparent and reduce likelihood of a conflict.