Warning Signs of a Coming Threat Off Somalia

The monsoon season begins in just a few weeks off the coast of Somalia, so expect piracy to drop off during that period even as both NATO and the EU may be preparing to increase operations.

It is unclear what the US Navy intends to do with the adjustment period that will most likely result in the pirates changing tactics, but this report suggests what some of the new pirate tactics might be, and what the South Koreans are worried about.

I was struck by reading last night that the South Korean navy wants to equip its Lynx helicopters with a missile protection system (flares and radar warning system) and is prepared to make the necessary modifications immediately, according to a South Korean defense ministry quoted by the Korea Times. The move comes after it received warning from the National Intelligence Service and the Defense Security Command that Somali pirates seem to have acquired Stinger anti-air missiles from Al-Qaida.

The article goes on to note the South Koreans may install the defense system to their helicopters in Djibouti, suggesting the threat is near term, not long term.

Any tactical evolution towards offensive weapons against naval forces will fundamentally change everything about Somalia piracy. One incident, particularly against a US ship or helicopter, is going to raise all kinds of questions regarding the littoral strategy of naval forces operating off Somalia.

And should Sailors be killed, it will unfortunately reveal in bloody detail why littoral operations in populated spaces against threats that conceal well in the maritime environment are manpower intensive operations requiring a physical level of tactical scouting with enough credible firepower and survivability to take a hit and dish out overwhelming firepower while under direct fire at very close range.

Exactly what the LCS is not.