Observing China's SSBN Developments

The Jamestown Foundation offered a quick overview of China's efforts to expand its fleet of SSBNs yesterday that's worth reading in whole. Here's a thumbnail of what's inside:

China’s undersea deterrent is undergoing a generational change with the emergence of the Type-094, or Jin-class, which represents a substantial improvement over China’s first-generation Type-092, or Xia-class, nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN). Launched in the early 1980s, the People's Liberation Army Navy's (PLAN) single Xia-class SSBN (hereafter Xia) has never conducted a deterrent patrol and is equipped with relatively short-range (1,770 km) JL-1 SLBMs (submarine-launched ballistic missiles). In contrast, China may build five Type-094 SSBNs, which will enable the PLAN to conduct near-continuous deterrent patrols, and each of these second-generation SSBNs will be outfitted with 12 developmental JL-2 SLBMs that have an estimated range of at least 7,200 km and are equipped with penetration aids. Although the transition to the new SSBN is ongoing, recent Internet photos depicting at least two Jin-class SSBNs (hereafter Jin) suggest that the PLAN has reached an unprecedented level of confidence in the sea-based leg of its strategic nuclear forces. Indeed, China’s 2008 Defense White Paper states that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is enhancing its “nuclear counterattack” capability. With the anticipated introduction of the JL-2 missiles on the Jin and the deployment of DF-31 and DF-31A road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), China is on the verge of attaining a credible nuclear deterrent based on a 'survivable' second-strike capability.

Analysts present five possibilities to explain China's expansion of their sea-based nuclear forces:

• Improve the 'survivability' of China’s nuclear forces.


• To enhance the credibility of China’s nuclear deterrent.


• To complicate U.S. missile-defense interception efforts.


• As symbols of China's emerging great-power status.


• Inter-service politics.

The Jamestown piece then goes on to provide a sound analysis of the operational challenges China faces over the next decade in effectively deploying the Jins. I suspect all the motives suggested in the Jamestown piece are at play. China has clearly mapped a path to make itself the dominant influence in the Asia-Pacific region, is taking steps to play a significant role in the Indian Ocean basin and has shown increased interest in having a say on global issues.

In addition, contrary to most American analyses of these developments, it's not all about us. While most U.S. analysts tend to take an American-centric view of these developments, it should not be forgotten that four other nuclear powers are within the operational reach of Chinese territory--Russia, India, North Korea and Pakistan--and that Chinese territory is within reach of systems being developed by Iran. What's clear is that China's marching towards becoming a Great Power for reasons beyond merely having the largest population in the world. Their goal is to position themselves to be able to exercise influence across the DIME spectrum.