Observing the Scarborough Shoals PLAN Submarine Incident

This is a very interesting blog post by Ken Adams, who I am borrowing the image from displayed on the right. Ken raised points based on the details of Friday's Navy Times article suggesting the location of the incident appears to be a little confused in US reporting.

Read his post before reading below.

Using this information I looked around and have found he appears to be exactly right. Several Chinese news sources are claiming the incident took place not off Sudic Bay as CNN reported, nor around the Mindoro Strait as the AP reported, but near the Scarborough Shoals. If you observe the image borrowed from Ken Adams, you can open up Google Earth and see for yourself that while the satellite clearly covers the island, the details of Scarborough Shoals are blurred out... probably for a reason.

The following is from cache of a blog written by Philippines reporter Ellen Tordesillas, whose website is not online as of this writing. Ellen is claiming the incident likely took place around 2nm off the Scarborough shoals, which as of four months ago would be counted under the new Philippines Baseline law (see this quick tutorial video on youtube) as inside the sovereign territory of the Philippines.

The four-month old Philippine baseline law got its first test last Friday and it failed miserably and embarrassingly.

Last Friday, CNN reported a Chinese submarine collided with an underwater sonar array towed by the destroyer USS John S. McCain off the Philippines.

Other wire reports from Washington D.C. described the location as “off Subic Bay” in Zambales. Chinese media said the encounter was near Scarborough Shoal.

The Philippine government version of the location of the high seas collision, given two days after the incident, was closer to that of China. Defense Assistant Secretary Alberto Valenzuela said “it was 125 nautical miles off Subic, near the Scarborough Shoal, which is 123 nautical miles from Subic.”

Under the baseline law, Scarborough shoal is part of Philippine territory classified as a “regime of islands.” Inclusion of the shoal in Philippine territory was protested by China which also claims the shoal as well as the whole of South China Sea.

From the three versions of the location of the collision, it can be concluded that it is in Philippine territory.

The law, which had a lot of controversy and debate surrounding its passage (including protest from China and Vietnam), is heavily based on the United Nations Law of the Sea. While I don't think it is as clear as Ellen does that the incident took place in Philippine territory, I find it very odd that recent satellite imagery of the Scarborough Shoals exists, and for some reason Google has been asked to conceal the details.

As I understand it, there are no people who live on the shoals, although without satellite it is difficult to find imagery other than a few rocks of the shoals. Unless you have been there, which I haven't, I'm not sure whether the shoals simply are a handful of rocks above sea level or if there is enough land mass to leverage the shoals for high technology like military equipment. With both the US and Philippine governments already denying the event took place in Philippine territory, and it is unlikely the exact location of the incident will be revealed, it seems to me the question is whether China has any activity taking place on the shoals themselves, never mind 2nms off the shoals.

The picture in Google Earth is smudged for a reason, and it isn't a bad assumption that the reason is related in some way to the reason a PLA Navy submarine is operating that close to the shoals, or why a US Navy destroyer would be hunting a PLA Navy submarine in that area.

These territorial issues in the South China Sea are no joke. If China has no problem harassing the US Navy over territorial rights, it is a good bet they look at the Philippines with disdain on the issue and will be equally aggressive and provocative... perhaps even more so. As for me, I don't like the lack of transparency from Google Earth in a region we are having naval incidents with the PLA Navy. That just doesn't look right to me.