UN Security Council Resolution 1874 Enforcement Looms

I got an email early in the day today from a reporter with an interesting question, how will the North Korean naval resolution work? I sort of got caught up thinking about the question as time allowed. Turns out it was a timely question.

I decided it would look something like this, and so far in the case of the Kang Nam, I think it does look like this.

First the US would identify a ship and ask for permission to board. If permission was refused, there would be a media leak describing the ship, and essentially the global media would become a GPS tracking service following the ships movements. Why?

The intent here is to take advantage of the first legal opportunity that presents itself to board the ship for weapons inspection. I believe there will be opportunities, and here is why.

Most flagged North Korean ships are small, and simply lack the endurance to get directly from North Korea to most of the countries North Korea would be engaged in military sales with. If they enter the territorial waters of any country along the way, the ship can be legally searched. If the ship attempts to cross the Panama Canal or Suez Canal, the ship can be legally searched. If the ship goes to another country, that country is awarded global political pressure that may or may not be worth the effort.

The point is, if the intelligence is good, this resolution really does isolate North Korea more than the resolution is given credit for, because there are a number of legal ways to board a ship. We call it a Coast Guard inspection, and every Coast Guard globally has something like it. While it is true the Global Coast Guard could use significant improvement, the publicity from the media leak politically plays right into the intent of our global maritime partnership engagements, and likely insures a Coast Guard inspection will occur.

The question on peoples mind is why was the UN resolution set up this way, why not just allow boardings? The answer should seem obvious. The chances a North Korean flagged ship is going to put itself in a position to be legally boarded by South Korea, Japan, or the United States is non-existent. China's intention was to insure that the major military powers that North Korea is in dispute with will not be the ones conducting seizure of North Korean military equipment, rather it will likely be someone well out of the reach of North Korea. If the ship attempts to make port in Pakistan, and the Pakistan Coast Guard turns up weapons when searching the ship, what is North Korea going to do... declare war on Pakistan?

I think the whole world would prefer that to North Korea declaring or engaging in open warfare with Japan, South Korea, or the United States. I just don't think the government of Pakistan is going to care much if North Korea declares war, and I do think that if North Korea did attack Pakistan, Pakistan would be in good position to ask China for assistance with that problem.

The design of the resolution was intended to promote stability in the region while also directly addressing the proliferation problem. We'll have to see how this unfolds, but my initial reaction to this resolution was positive, and I still remain optimistic this resolution will produce the results desired.