Will a Sea Battle Break Out?

I am starting to think North Korea isn't just talking about a fight at sea, they are looking for a skirmish at sea.

A North Korean navy patrol boat Thursday crossed into South Korean waters and stayed almost one hour before retreating after repeated warnings, Seoul military officials said.

The boat crossed the Yellow Sea border in the early afternoon but returned to its own side about 50 minutes later, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement.

There is a reason given for the incursion.

The North Korean boat intruded 1.6 kilometres into the South Korean side, a spokesman for the Joint Chiefs told AFP.

He said it apparently was chasing Chinese boats that were operating illegally in the rich crab fishing area, but did not exclude the possibility it was a planned intrusion to raise tensions further.

I don't know if this specific incident was an accident of enforcement or an intentional intrusion, but when placed in the context of the rhetoric coming from the North, a lack of deconfliction options alone may lead to action.

The danger is, the North may be looking for more than just a little fight. Clearly South Korea understands what is happening, and good neighbors do not overreact when enforcement vessels operate near a sea border. It is always belligerent states that overreact, for example, Iran when they took prisoner the Royal Navy sailors.

My problem watching all of these North Korean activities unfold is that China is sitting idle doing nothing. Obama's problem with North Korea isn't only the little man himself, it is the way China passively allows the behavior by taking no steps to prevent the behavior, after all, China has all the cards in terms of taking action.

China can reign this in anytime they want, and have chosen not to so far. To me, that is a signal that cannot be ignored, because it specifically identifies China's intent in the region as not being a constructive partner with neighbors, which means the intent is to support the behavior.