The Bear Tries To Outwit BMD

This spring saw a lot of discussion of the counter-BMD capabilities of China's new ASBM system along with ongoing debate over the value of U.S. BMD systems and plans, particularly as these systems impact our relationship with Russia. Well, if Roger McDermott at the Jamestown Foundation is to believed, it looks like Moscow is more worried about U.S. BMD capability than previously expressed.

On July 15, sources within the Russian MoD said that two missile launches, using a flattened trajectory, were conducted by submarines the previous day. In particular, they alleged that U.S. and NATO intelligence were "surprised," not by the launches but that they were unable to determine the source of their launch. "The American missile defense system of course detected the missile launches themselves, but the area from which the launches were conducted was completely unexpected for them," the source said. Reportedly, attack submarines from the Northern Fleet arrived in the Arctic Circle, closed the area to tracking, and from beneath the pack-ice two Delta IV submarines conducted launches. "In its turn, the U.S. space detection equipment, as an element of the missile defense system, cannot track the presence of submarines under the Arctic ice," the source claimed. The deployment of submarines in this area, and the apparent absence of sufficient operational information, reduces the time it takes to reach a target and until the launch it is effectively invisible to tracking systems (RIA Novosti, July 15).

This, coupled with Russian protests over U.S. plans to array missile defense assets across Eastern Europe, reminds me of something Chuck Yeager used to say: "Anything that makes the Russians squirm has to be good." After all, you don't look for ways to stop or defeat systems that don't work.