North Korea Approaches Melting Point

I think this is brilliant analysis at Nightwatch regarding the release of prisoners by North Korea recently done by former President Bill Clinton.

Some commentators criticized the Clinton mission to North Korea as rewarding bad behavior. An alternative and arguably more accurate observation is that the mission rewarded good behavior, especially considering a state of war exists. The North handled the case according to its laws without engaging in a propaganda circus, as it has done in earlier periods. There was no show trial; no accusations the journalists committed espionage; no physical abuse.

By its action yesterday, the North reset the basis for talks and the burden of the next move is now on the US. The US probably has a window of opportunity that will remain open for about a month before this invitation is withdrawn.

What is missing from this analysis though is the sense of timing, because while the Strategic Economic Dialogue between the US and China was downplayed as a good first try, I look at it from the perspective of being on the team that scored several runs in the middle of a baseball game everyone expects to go to extra innings. This article covered some of the news last week that set up the events of this week.

Chinese customs foiled an attempt to smuggle the rare metal vanadium, which can be used in missile casings, to North Korea. And Zhongkuang International Investment, a Chinese firm, has reportedly halted construction of facilities for a joint copper mine with Korea Mining Development Trading Corporation (KOMID), a North Korean firm blacklisted by the UNSC.

These measures were taken by China at around the time of this week's Strategic Economic Dialogue with the U.S. A joint press release at the talks said the two sides "emphasized the importance of implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1874 and resolving the nuclear issue on the peninsula through peaceful means."

China does not want to cut North Korea off completely, rather wants North Korea to come to them under specific circumstances, and has sent signals with policy to force North Korea in that direction. North Korea is looking for some leverage themselves, and played their 'prisoner' card. The game of diplomatic chess on the North Korean peninsula is in full motion right now, and with clear signals being sent to Washington DC that they are interested in talks, I honestly wonder if they are teetering on collapse as we speak hoping we move for talks, and thus delay the inevitable.

In the case of North Korea, the side effects of patient sanctions and patient coalition building are very slowly coming into view. The enormous pivot on the part of China over the past few months will greatly influence conditions in regards to North Korea. North Korea is an unstable state that could implode under even minor, well placed weight right now, but is propped up by its enemies just as much as its held together by internal power structures. North Korea represents nearly a half-century of an untold human tragedy, and to many, the fear of a small nuclear capacity by North Korea is less than the fear of what unfolds with the revelation of the untold human tragedy should the regime in North Korea fall.

While I don't share that fear, I do understand the source of the fear. As North Korea crumbles, it is more likely the side effects to the region will be greater than the direct effects to the whole of a fallen government in North Korea itself. The burden of managing North Korea without a stable government will be enormous, but I believe it will be insignificant to the regional economic and political impacts that will result, because the side effects will directly influence the relationships of several of the worlds largest economic powers, and potentially whether the 21st century looks like the bi-polar 20th century world, or a non-polar version of the multi-polar 19th century world.

Final thought. I have never had much faith in the UN to be effective, but I think in the case of North Korea right now, the UN is becoming more effective. Unfortunately, this doesn't speak well of the UN, because what it means is that the UN is always ineffective, unless every one finds near universal agreement to make the UN the effective means of pushing political consequences to actions. Ultimately that means the UN is fatally flawed beyond managing any problems other than the most insane, disconnected nations demonstrating repeated poor judgment.