UCAS - Enthusiasm is Good, Realism is Better

Colin Clark checks in from DoDBuzz with a few comments by VADM David Architzel.

Navy Secretary Ray Mabus has decided to make unmanned systems a top priority and wants the service to “be viewed as the leader in unmanned systems,” the top uniformed acquisition officer said at a UAV air show.

“We will work closely with other services but the Navy has every intention of being the leader in UAVs,” Vice Adm. David Architzel, principal deputy to the assistant Navy for research, development, and acquisition, said at the beginning of the show in southern Maryland as part of AUVSI’s Unmanned Systems 2009 conference.

I am hearing a new tune from the Flags in naval aviation, because this was not the same tune we were hearing this time last year. If I remember FY2009 budget talks correctly, and I know I remember it correctly... the Navy was dumping unmanned systems as a priority. New administration, new priorities. I smell something at work, which probably means Bob Work...

VADM Architzel's seems to have genuine enthusiasm for unmanned systems, but nothing he is saying leaves me the impression he is being realistic with expectations. Until I see realism in leaderships comments of unmanned systems, realism that sets expectations to a credible degree and addresses the enormous challenges, I don't buy anything being said or sold with the unmanned systems advocacy. The flip flops of the past year leave me the impression unmanned systems are a fad in naval aviation right now, at least in terms of a UCAS or armed UAV. Here's a cup of realism from Joe:

The first X-47B Pegasus UCAS-D is scheduled to fly in late 2009. It will begin a series of detailed flight envelope and land-based carrier integration and qualification events beginning in 2010, with the first actual at-sea carrier landings planned for late 2011. Follow-on analysis and program completion will take place in 2012-2013.

If all goes well, the USA’s Naval Aviation Master Plan currently includes provisions for introduction of a Navy UCAS around 2025. It all goes very well, and the US Navy begins to confront the operational consequences of its shortened strike range, pressure is likely to build for sooner deployment. Even so, the level of cultural shift required by the naval aviation community is likely to slow down any deployment of advanced UCAVs on board ship, let alone an early fielding.

That culture shift is no joke. A great example - Lex. I've been reading for years on this subject, and watching him make the culture shift from manned aviation to unmanned aviation - as a retired aviator - has been quite instructional. It has taken years for him to go from the point 'unmanned simply isn't us' to 'unmanned is interesting,' and 'interesting' isn't an endorsement! Now I am supposed to believe the Naval aviation flags are ready to be leader of the UAV movement? Come on, does that sound even the slightest bit credible to anyone outside the tiny Pentagon office the memo was written in?

I think Joe Katzman has it exactly right, "the level of cultural shift required by the naval aviation community is likely to slow down any deployment of advanced UCAVs on board ship, let alone an early fielding." That really is a brilliantly worded sentence that passes the smell test of realism, and because naval aviation community has been well grounded in realism while the SWOs tread water in acquisition, I'd encourage them to maintain realism when talking about the future of unmanned systems. It will make their efforts more believable, and set expectations in a way that excuses speed bumps both expected, and not.