Atomic Obsession

I had the opportunity earlier this week to diavlog with John Mueller, Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University, on his new book, Atomic Obsession. Mueller's argument is that the importance of nuclear weapons has been substantially overstated in several ways; popular culture has exaggerated the effect of individual nuclear weapons, historians and political scientists have exaggerated the importance of nuclear weapons to Cold War stability, and policymakers have wildly overhyped the threat of a terrorist group employing nuclear weapons. The book is readable and quite good, and although I would quibble with elements of the historical argument I think the skepticism about a nuclear terrorist attack is dead on. As Mueller argues, the "1% doctrine" is a somewhat sensible way of thinking about the necessity of preparedness for high lost, low probability events, but at some point the events are of such low probability that it's a waste of time to build policy around them. In this section, we discuss the role that arms control efforts might play in eventual nuclear abolition; Mueller is skeptical.