What I Learned on Election Day

I'll let this post be a good test for the comment system. I learned three things on election day.

1) NY-23 was fascinating. Bill Owens is a Blue Dog Dem who opposed the public option on health care. At the end of the day, that was enough to beat a surging conservative with national financial support from Republicans in a bleeding red district of the northeast. That should have Albany Republicans, if not national Republicans and Democrats... very, very concerned.

The lesson of NY-23 for Republicans is that "conservative" works as a fiscal platform in a campaign, but the Republican brand is still toxic. The lesson of NY-23 for Democrats is that Blue Dogs are why you currently have power and can still win elections in traditional Republican strongholds, but your biggest election win in 2009 was because the candidate rejected the public option in health care.

2) Creigh Deeds ran a terrible campaign and looked politically inept. That will make his Senate seat hard to keep next time around. He has to stand out to stay in the Senate, which makes him a possible wild card heading into the future. More than anyone else in any of the major elections, Creigh Deeds needs to rebrand himself an image distant from the one created during the campaign.

The lesson of Virginia for Republicans is that a good candidate who runs a good campaign can win in a red state. The lesson of Virginia for Democrats is that a good candidate who runs a good campaign can win in a red state.

3) $30 million dollars wasn't enough to keep a Wall Street guy like Jon Corzine in political power during a world wide financial crisis. New Jersey lost as much as anyone in the financial crisis, and Jon Corzine became the face of a brand that represents everything toxic in American politics today.

The lesson for Republicans in New Jersey is that an unpopular incumbent is vulnerable. The lesson for Democrats in New Jersey is that an unpopular incumbent makes for a big target for 2010.