The Never Ceasing Export Rumor

Within a week of news reporting that the construction schedule for nuclear submarines will likely change in the next budget, this was a news item I should have predicted. It can be said that new administrations often bring new policies, and this would be an interesting development, but this rumor has been around a very long time.

Washington is likely to agree to the sale of submarines to Taiwan as a gesture of good faith, according to a high-ranking ROC military official Dec. 10.

The article continues.

“Taiwan and the U.S. are still negotiating the contents of the arms sales,” a high-level security official in Taiwan said, adding that “it is incorrect to say that the decision has been finalized.”

According to this official, the U.S. Department of State is still reviewing the submarine deal. Once it notifies Congress, it will mean the administration has approved the sale. However, as far as is known Congress has not been notified, because if it had been, the ROC military should have been informed, the official pointed out.

Neither the Bush nor the Obama administration has ever agreed to the sales of F16 C/D fighter jets to Taiwan, though Taiwan budgeted funds for their purchase, the official noted.

In the military’s analysis, President Obama would first announce the sales of the less controversial 60 Black Hawk helicopters and perhaps even the diesel-electric submarines to show his goodwill toward Taipei. “The F16 C/D fighters will be put at the bottom of the list for future consideration,” the analysis indicated.

I would think the submarine deal would be a lot more controversial than the F-16s, so I am thinking this "analysis" being cited is a bit sketchy. With that said, I would not be surprised at all if President Obama approves the conventional submarine deal with Taiwan where President Bush never did. Bush was always predictable with China, but Obama has proven he is not.

This would be an interesting way to boost the submarine industry despite reducing total nuclear submarine purchases. With that said, it should be noted that neither Newport News or Electric Boat would necessarily get the contract; it could be that smaller shipyards, like Marinette Marine, would bid on any export deal given the export potential of a successful US conventional submarine design.