Observing Iranian Sanctions and Options

From the Washington Post

A U.N. sanctions committee expressed "grave concern" Thursday about what it called apparent Iranian violations of a U.N. ban on arms exports, triggering a renewed threat by the United States and its European allies to press for broader sanctions against Tehran if it does not mend its ways.

The Security Council committee, chaired by Japan, cited numerous reports of illegal shipments by the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines over the past three months, including two Iranian arms shipments seized by Malta and Israel. The United States and Israel say the weapons were bound for Syria.

"Iran has now been caught breaking the rules," said Susan E. Rice, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. "Such violations are unacceptable."

Rice added: "The illicit smuggling of weapons from Iran to Syria is not just a sanctions violation. It is also an important factor in the destabilization of an already fragile Middle East."

The Dutch not only have a few thoughts on the subject of Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines smuggling, they show there is a way to manage the issue.

Iranian state company IRISL is avoiding Dutch ports, possibly because the Netherlands carries out more intensive checks than elsewhere in Europe.

Foreign Minister Maxime Verhagen told a Lower House meeting, “this is not proof, but it is an indication that something suspicious is going on.”

The international community suspects Iran of trying to build nuclear weapon systems. As a result the United Nations Security Council has stipulated that Iranian sea and air freight can be checked.

The Netherlands has taken things a step further and checks all Iranian ships. Minister Verhagen hopes other European countries will follow its lead. The strict controls do not only prevent the import of goods for making nuclear weapons, but also prevent weapons smuggling. The minister believes these weapons are destined for radical Islamic groups to use against Israeli civilians.

IRISL ships are often speculated to be part of s global smuggling ring that includes supplying weapons to Hamas, Hezbollah, Janjaweed in Darfur, Al Shaabab in Somalia, and are thought to be involved as suppliers to many black market groups supporting the drug trade throughout Africa and South America.

An interesting update regarding the ANL-Australia, the North Korean ship heading to Iran seized by the UAE in August, from NIGHTWATCH.

Kyodo World Service reported on 6 December that Iran has decided to postpone the test launch of a new intermediate-range ballistic missile apparently due to problems with the delivery of components ordered from North Korea, a Western diplomatic source said Sunday.

According to Kyodo’s account, Tehran told Pyongyang that electronic parts for improving the missile's accuracy have yet to arrive from North Korea. North Korea claims it shipped the components in 10 Iran-bound containers that were seized in the United Arab Emirates in July.

"The shipment of the electronic components was supposed to be part of the new agreement signed in late 2008 between Iran and North Korea for the continued supply of the new missile's technology," the diplomatic source said. Iran supposedly suspects the components were not actually in the containers, according to the source.

North Korea is believed to have developed the new intermediate-range missile by modifying a Soviet-made submarine-launched ballistic missile, the SSN6, one of the most reliable nuclear-capable missiles ever built. It is known as the BM-25 or Musudan among Western intelligence circles and military experts. Several sources indicate Iran bought this system from North Korea in 2005 and has a complete firing unit of 18 missiles, according to the Israeli Intelligence Chief in 2006. It probably lacks the latest electronics or production technology.

"The test, when it succeeds, will enable Iran to improve its operational SSM (surface-to-surface missile) capability, to advance to mass production of the new missile," the source added, noting that the missile's target range is between 2,500 and 3,500 kilometers depending on the warhead payload, thus posing a threat to most of Europe.

This is the most dangerous operational missile that Iran and North Korea have. No source in the public domain has reported that Iran has acquired production technology for the missile, but the North Koreans are known to sell turnkey production capabilities, which they did to Syria and Pakistan for other ballistic missiles.

The delay might be a measure of success for the counter-proliferation lobby. The usual explanation is the Iran’s are always trying to stiff the North Koreans by not paying on time or not paying the amount due. Still the Iranian arms relationship is one of the most enduring that North Korea has, after Syria and Pakistan.

From the Tehran Times, a government news organization in Iran.

Iran’s citizen Shahram Amiri who was kidnapped on a pilgrimage visit to Saudi Arabia last May has been abducted from the Saudi Arabia’s soil by Washington, the Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Tuesday.

Amiri, a researcher at the University of Malek Ashtar, was kidnapped in Saudi Arabia while visiting the country as a pilgrim.

The U.S. is accused of abducting Iranian citizens, Ramin Mehmanparast told reporters at his first weekly press briefing.

The Foreign Ministry has done everything in its capacity to obtain the release of the Iranian nationals in captivity abroad, the spokesman said, adding so far four Iranian nationals have been released.

Several Iranian nationals have gone missing while on trips abroad.

“A number of 11 individuals have been abducted directly by the U.S. or its agents across the globe,” Mehmanparast declared.

A few points on this. Western media has been talking about defectors of the Iranian nuclear program contributing to the announcement in September regarding the discovery of "secret" nuclear sites. As Reuters reports, Turkish, Arabic, and Israeli media are all talking about this being a defection. If in fact there are 11 defections and they are nuclear scientists, there may be more information on Iran's "secret" nuclear program forthcoming in the very near future.

Via Stratfor.

Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal led a Hamas delegation to Sanaa, Yemen, the evening of Dec. 8 to mediate between Yemen and Iran, at Iran’s invitation, Al-Quds Al-Arabi reported Dec. 9. Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh met with Meshaal Dec. 9 at the compound that contains the Ministry of Defense and armed forces high command. Saleh reportedly presented Meshaal with evidence of Iranian support for the Houthi rebels in Yemen, including the discovery of Iranians trying to smuggle weapons to Houthis at the port of Midi. Saleh dismissed Meshaal’s offer to mediate.

Apparently the Yemen President has smoking gun proof that Iran is providing military support to the Shi'ite rebels that Saudi Arabia is crossing the Yemeni border to fight. We know the situation gets serious when the Saudi Air Force gets involved, and to date there have been no reports of any major Saudi Air Force actions. This is not a major dust up between Saudi Arabia and Iran, or even Iran and Yemen, but some folks are too casually ignoring Iran's role here. The explicit nature of the revelation, by the Yemeni President himself to a Hamas mediator, is a very refreshing version of blunt diplomacy.

I'm not even going to speculate the Arctic Sea mystery and connection to Iran here, but one must casually accept as normal that the routine trip to the Med from Russia took 4 months, must casually accept as normal that Russian Navy action off the West African coast meant nothing, must casually accept as normal that several asylum seekers who are accredited maritime journalists from Russia fled for no reason, and must casually accept as normal the belief that piracy has returned to the Baltic Sea after being dormant for over 400 years to believe the Russian government official story.

Where is this going?

China has made it clear they do not support UN sanctions, but you never really know until it is time to vote. The news about the IRISL is interesting, because it suggests that the UN may be considering a new form of maritime interdiction sanctions on Iran similar to those imposed on North Korea. Again, it is unclear if China would support those kinds of sanctions, but they might.

When I noted J-Street supports unilateral US sanctions, regardless of all the political meanings people have assigned to J-Street's decision, what it really means is that the President has been out working his base, and intends to do something.

The President has said all along he believes there will be a diplomatic solution to Iran, and he has said all along that he will apply tough sanctions that hurt. We are learning about this President and learning how he works. His style is to let the House and Senate do the detail work when it comes to his policy agendas. That is why I believe the Berman bill is the administrations policy. From the Politico:

The legislation seeks to cut supplies of refined petroleum products, especially gasoline, into Iran as a means of convincing that regime to end its nuclear weapons programs. Additional sanctions would be imposed on foreign exchange, banking and property transactions, including any organization that does business with the Central Bank of Iran.

“I intend to pass the bill by the end of this year,” Berman, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told POLITICO. His bill has 339 co-sponsors in the House, and it might be taken up under a parliamentary process that allows quick approval of widely supported legislation.

The key for me to the Berman bill is that it really targets the transportation industry as a whole. The same Politico article explains:

“This legislation requires that any foreign entity that sells refined petroleum to Iran — or otherwise enhances Iran's ability to import refined petroleum through, for example, financing, brokering, underwriting or providing ships for such activity — will be effectively barred from doing business in the United States,” Berman said on April 30 when he introduced his bill. “The same would be true for any entity that provides goods or services that enhance Iran's ability to maintain or expand its domestic production of refined petroleum.”

This is am interesting move, but I think it would work better if coordinated with tougher maritime interdiction sanctions passed through the UN. One way or another inspecting ships for carrying fuel will be necessary, and UN maritime interdiction sanctions would open up this policy. I'm just speculating, but it does look to me like Westerners are talking about and now thinking about how to influence and inspect Iranian maritime shipping. It will be interesting how all of this comes together, or if anything comes from all of the rhetoric.