STRATFOR On Iran

There is some buzz about the STRATFOR report this morning titled: The Iranian Incursion in Context. I note that what makes this report most interesting is that George Friedman glossed over the context used to form the analysis. In studying the report, it is important to note this Intelligence Report is just as much news as it is intelligence, because they are quoting sources no other media source has.

For example, where the hell did this come from?

Multiple sources have reported that Tehran ordered the incident. The Iranian government is aware that Washington has said the end of 2009 was to be the deadline for taking action against Iran over its nuclear program — and that according to a White House source, the United States could extend that deadline to Jan. 15, 2010.

That postponement makes an important point. The United States has treated the Iran crisis as something that will be handled on an American timeline. The way that the Obama administration handled the Afghanistan strategy review suggests it assumes that Washington controls the tempo of events sufficiently that it can make decisions carefully, deliberately and with due reflection. If true, that would mean that adversaries like Iran are purely on the defensive, and either have no counter to American moves or cannot counter the United States until after Washington makes its next move.

For Iran, just to accept that premise puts it at an obvious disadvantage. First, Tehran would have to demonstrate that the tempo of events is not simply in American or Israeli hands. Second, Tehran would have to remind the United States and Israel that Iran has options that it might use regardless of whether the United States chooses sanctions or war. Most important, Iran must show that whatever these options are, they can occur before the United States acts — that Iran has axes of its own, and may not wait for the U.S. axe to fall.

Actually, few sources have tied the incursion by Iranian forces against the oil platform in Iraq to Tehran, indeed based solely on media information, one would be led to believe this is a local action by a regional Iranian commander, and not part of a government strategy. That bit is then followed by a specific date January 15, 2024 - which again I have never seen US government policy and Iran tied to that date in media reporting. That immediately leads one to conclude these "sources" are in fact STRATFOR sources, and if they are what George Friedman is basing his analysis on, they are almost certainly well placed folks of influence.

There is a lot more zero sum game analysis in this STRATFOR report than usual, indeed a bit too much for me to find a lot of value in it. I don't know if STRATFOR has better or worse sources than the mainstream media in the US does, but they might? With that said there is a concluding issue that has been on my mind a bit, something I know that has been on a lot of minds... apparently including George Friedman.

The Iranian move is deliberately designed to rattle U.S. President Barack Obama. He has shown a decision-making style that assumes that he is not under time pressure to make decisions. It is not clear to anyone what his decision-making style in a crisis will look like. Though not a prime consideration from the Iranian point of view, putting Obama in a position where he is psychologically unprepared for decisions in the timeframe they need to be made in is certainly an added benefit. Iran, of course, doesn’t know how effectively he might respond, but his approach to Afghanistan gives them another incentive to act sooner than later.

The man Barack Obama has a reputation that he has not been able to shake yet... that he can effectively adapt under pressure when time restraints exist. I am not going to go into the examples where his ability in this are questioned, only that the absence of major executive experience for a major enterprise doesn't offer observers any specific evidence that can be highlighted regarding that skill. I will also admit it is a topic I have heard discussed by many folks, and one I have pondered myself.

I am not sure the Iranian situation will ever develop into the scenario where the President is tested under a time restraint to make a tough decision, but I will suggest that a scenario could pop up anytime - and how he reacts (and whether it is timely) will be what to watch for.

If anyone knows what the date January 15, 2024 deadline date means in regards to Iran, let me know. That date appears to be the key to whether this STRATFOR report is legit or not, as it appears to rely on STRATFOR sources that can be confirmed or denied in other places.