According to the BBC, Argentina has announced that all ships passing through its claimed territorial waters (so that includes the Falklands) must have a new permit.
The reason for this is British plans to drill for oil, an operation that is set to begin next week. The oil-field off the Falklands is said to have a capacity of 60 billion barrels.
The Argentine government has already prevented one ship, the MV Thor Leader, to sail for the Falklands. The government said the vessel had supplies on board for oil drilling.
Currently the oil rig Ocean Guardion is on its way to the islands and should arrive tomorrow, the 19th. Some claim the rig has been shadowed by Argentine aircraft.
At this moment I wouldn't expect a 2nd Falklands War, because the risks for Argentina are too high.
When the Falklands War started there were about 80 military personnel at the islands, together with the patrol vessel HMS Endurance.
Currently there are just over 1,000 military personnel, 4 Eurofighters, a VC-10 refuelling plane, a Hercules and 2 Sea Kings. Naval assets currently at the Falklands are the type 42 destroyer HMS York and patrol vessel HMS Clyde. Underway are the fleet tanker RFA Wave Ruler and survey vessel HMS Scott.
I'd expect one or more submarines to emerge in the waters of the Falklands as well.
If it would come to a war expect the UK to go 'all in'. Yes, because of the oil reserves, but also because of the upcoming general elections in the UK. These must be hold before June 4 and the Labour Party of Prime Minister Gordon Brown could use a boost, since most recent polls indicate Labour is 9 percentage points behind the Conservative Party (the Tories).
So don't expect 'the Falklands War part II', but do expect tensions to be rising between the UK and Argentina.
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