Brookings Iran-Israel Wargame

Up to about step 8, the Brookings simulation of an Israeli strike on Iran seems to have run very much like the Patterson simulation. The major difference is in the Brookings sim, the Iranians decide to attack Saudi oil facilities and mine the Strait of Hormuz after playing it cool for several days. I'd be curious to learn why the Iranian team decided to respond after such a delay; their early strategy was very similar to the of the Iran team in the Patterson sim, which was to stay quiet and try to drive a wedge between Israel and the US. This seemed to be working (Israel's only activity after the first strike was to launch an assault against Hezbollah) in the Brookings simulation, and it looks as if the strike on Saudi oil solved a lot of diplomatic problems for both the Americans and the Israelis.