Gates And Boomers

In this story from yesterday's Politico, Pentagon Spokesman Geoff Morrell reveals some of Secretary Gates' thinking with respect to the Navy's OHIO class SSBN replacement plans. Apparently, SECDEF plans some tough love for the Navy, as he'll wade into the middle of the navalists gathered at the Navy League's Sea, Air, and Space Symposium and cast doubts on the direction the service appears headed. From the story: "Geoff Morrell says Gates will raise questions about changes in geopolitics, global naval resourcing, the global economy and how those changes may impact what programs the Navy builds in the future." This isn't likely to come as good news to the submarine cabal.

At $6-7B a pop, these boats will--as Secretary Gates told the HASC in March--"suck all the air out of the Navy's shipbuilding program" (steady state totals of $15.9B annually).

Mackenzie Eaglen of Heritage called this right--Gates is sending the Navy signals, very strong signals, that they are going to have to figure out a way to lower the cost of these behemoths, and his tipped hand suggests he will talk straight past the Nuclear Posture Review's endorsement of a sea-based deterrent. Because--while A sea-based deterrent was endorsed, it was not necessarily THE sea-based deterrent the Navy has in mind. Some hold out hope that much if not all of the cost of the OHIO replacement will be picked up outside the Navy budget, but Gates' language so far indicates he'll only consider such a plan after the Navy has skinnied down the requirement and done the heavy analysis to justify this type of platform. Gene Taylor (D-MS) and Ron O'Rourke (CRS) have both suggested a variant of the VIRGINIA Class submarine as the OHIO replacement, and I think the idea merits consideration.

Again though--this is a problem only in the Bizarro World of the Department of Defense, where the institutional interest in doling out the goodies equally trumps strategically critical capabilities. Shake up the "balanced force", resource our most strategically critical Service (the Navy) adequately, and $15.9B a year in shipbuilding would look more like $25B a year in shipbuilding. Problem (mostly) solved.

All this aside, it is amazing to watch Gates at work--he is a master bureaucrat. There is a strong argument to be made that he has been the most consequential SECDEF of the last forty years. He certainly holds the whip-hand.


Bryan McGrath