Germany to Withdraw From CTF 150 Early

As one who continuously observes naval deployments and patterns globally, I try to keep an eye out for news that seems odd, or doesn't add up. The news that Germany is basically stopping their contribution to Task Force 150 - the anti-terrorism international task force in the Gulf of Aden - seems very strange to me. There are plenty of perfectly legitimate reasons why the Germans would stop participation in CTF 150, but the specific reason given is not one of them.

Germany is withdrawing early from a US-led operation that patrols the sea off the Horn of Africa because the terrorist threat in that area is small, Defence Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg said Wednesday.

A German Navy reconnaissance plane and 90 military personnel will end their activity on June 30 instead of at the end of this year.

'The terrorist threat in the sea area off the Horn of Africa is limited,' said Guttenberg in Djibouti. The minister is overseeing a cost-saving review in Berlin of Germany's military budget.

Either the German intelligence office is asleep, or there is another reason and this is simply an excuse - because the reason given appears contrary to the analysis of the terrorist threat everywhere else. The threat of maritime terrorism off the Horn of Africa and specifically the Bab-el-Mandeb strait is probably at the highest point it has been since 2001, when Task Force 150 was established.

For example, back in March there was a special advisory made by the US Navy Office of Intelligence.

ONI Special Advisory, 9 Mar 10. To ensure maximum dissemination to the maritime industry and/or community, ONI is bringing to your attention the following US DOT MARAD Advisory. Please note, this advisory is not piracy-specific. This advisory is regarding terrorism and is being disseminated in an effort to promote security for those operating within the maritime domain.

US DOT MARAD Advisory: Information suggests that al-Qaida remains interested in maritime attacks in the Bab-al-Mandeb Strait, Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden along the coast of Yemen. Although it is unclear how they would proceed, it may be similar in nature to the attacks against the USS COLE in October 2000 and the M/V LIMBURG in October 2002 where a small to mid-size boat laden with explosives was detonated. Other more sophisticated methods of attack could include missiles or projectiles.

Although the time and location of such an attack is unknown, ships in the Red Sea, Bab-al-Mandeb Strait, and the Gulf of Aden along the coast of Yemen are at the greatest risk of becoming targets of such an attack. All vessels transiting the waters in the vicinity of Yemen are urged to operate at a heightened state of readiness and should maintain strict 24-hour visual and radar watches, and regularly report their position, course, and speed to the UKMTO. Vessels are at greatest risk in areas of restricted maneuverability and while in/near port or at anchor.

Merchant vessels are requested to report any suspicious activity to the UKMTO Dubai (ONI).

That followed disturbing direct threats from Al Qaeda in Yemen to the US Navy from the end of last year.

The Germans may have a legitimate reason to pull out of Task Force 150, but the suggestion that the reason is a reduced threat is ridiculous. National interest, economy, or a change in policy would all be valid reasons. It should be noted that the German Navy will continue to operate as part of EU NAVFOR to fight pirates off the Horn of Africa, so whatever the real reason is - the Germans are not retreating from the region.

Something is very odd here. It doesn't make much sense to reduce presence in a volatile maritime region for a reason that appears to be in direct contradiction of the facts. It leaves the question whether the reduction of forces in the region is for a good reason - perhaps too good of a reason to mention to the public?