The Costs of Rogue Regimes

A world without leadership looks like this.

Russia will not announce an official position on the sinking of the South Korean Navy corvette Cheonan, it emerged Tuesday. Moscow sent three torpedo and explosion experts to South Korea and analyzed findings of an international probe from May 31 to June 7 and was expected to announce its official position early this month.

A Foreign Ministry official said the Russian experts will eventually finish drawing up a report and submit it to the Russian government, but it seems Moscow "has no plan to make any announcement about it."

There is speculation that Russia decided to delay the announcement while the U.S. and China are at odds over the sinking at the UN Security Council.

But at least the South Korean and Russian naval forces are ready to fight Ice Pirates, or whatever type of piracy one might find in the North Pacific. One more thing to eventually blame Canada for no doubt.

I believe it is very good for US policy that neither Russia nor China can demonstrate the political courage to take a stand with South Korea even when overwhelming scientific evidence exists to support such a stand. Nothing strengthens our relationships with allies more than our ability to stand beside them at a time when all potential contenders to the United States waiver on matters of scientific fact.

We build trust with our partners while these two potential adversaries do not. It is a reminder that rogue regimes also represent an enormous political burden on their supporters. The price is not trivial - the inability of China to speak out against an unprovoked military attack by North Korea provides incalculable political cover for the US Navy to operate in China's own backyard.

That is an enormous price, because the George Washington CSG will exercise under political cover in the Yellow Sea as a result. It would be like the United States giving Mexico an internationally recognized valid political reason for the entire Chinese fleet to exercise off San Quintin.