Gulf Supertanker Was Terror Target

According to this New York Times article, it would appear Al Qaeda affiliated groups have attempted their first sea-based terror attacks on a super tank since the call for terror strikes at sea was made late last year.

Investigators in the United Arab Emirates said Friday that a terrorist attack caused the mysterious damage a Japanese oil tanker suffered last week as it passed through the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of future attacks in the narrow channel that serves as a passageway for shipping crude oil from the Middle East to the rest of the world.

The damage to the tanker — which an Emirati official said was caused by “homemade explosives” aboard a dinghy — was not considered serious, and there was little immediate impact on oil markets on Friday.

But the news instantly fanned worries about shipping security. If confirmed, the attack would be the first of its kind in the volatile strait, which has long been a focal point for tensions with Iran, just across the water from the Arabian Peninsula.

What I find interesting is the decision of the attackers to target a super tanker with the seaborne IED model similar to the USS Cole incident. In the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s no super tankers were lost to attacks by direct attacks from major weapon systems (including large mines and air launched anti-ship missiles), so a dingy attack with homemade bombs is not likely to create the spectacular impact these terror groups are looking for.

That's the thing about small boat attacks that distinguishes the success of piracy compared to the direct attack model - the effectiveness of a direct attack lies in quantity more so than quality, where as piracy can be seen as a quality style attack because it puts the pirates in complete control of the ship. When you have neither quality or quantity, success in a direct attack is unlikely. In the case of the USS Cole incident, the quality was there for both surprise and enormous luck with nearly precision targeting (the physical location the bomb created a hole in on the ship itself). That second part about precision targeting is essentially the story of the USS Cole bombing - and the part of the story rarely discussed.

I see this as the first of many sea based terror incidents in the region to come. Al Qaeda's first attack on the World Trade Center didn't work out as planned either - indeed one defining characteristic about Al Qaeda is how the organization has a history of making tactical adjustments from failure towards eventually achieving success. Expect the same learning process at sea, and expect the next Al Qaeda attack at sea to involve a boarding operation more similar to piracy instead of the direct attack method more similar to methods of the past. These are not folks who traditionally make the same mistake twice, or use failing tactics repeatedly when the opportunity to adapt exists.