Chris Albon doesn't have much faith in the local charity groups providing assistance in Pakistan. We saw this in the 2005 earthquake - they were quickly overwhelmed and simply wouldn't go to some of the really bad places. A Marine who was there described it back then with the phrase 'some areas were a block too far for them.'
Nitin Pai has a very thoughtful analysis regarding how the Pakistan floods play out. If that analysis turns out accurate, that outcome furthers the case why it is time to draw down in Afghanistan in my opinion. I am much less optimistic than that analysis though.
The impact to GDP and food that will play out the rest of the year will have serious repercussions - with some economic estimates suggesting Pakistan's GDP could be cut in half this year. The flooding will hit the man on the street in Karachi over the next several months a lot harder than the man on the street understands today. Unemployment will go up, and government funding is likely to drop significantly - including military funding. That adds quite a bit of uncertainty to the situation well beyond the direct disaster impacts.
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