Hornet Math by DEW Line

Over at the DEW Line, Stephen Trimble is discussing the $5.3 billion contract for more Super Hornets for the Navy.

I researched Boeing's press releases to find out how much the Super Hornet's price has changed over the last decade. Even as the company introduced the Block II Super Hornet/Growler with active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, the price has steadily declined. Keep in mind these figures don't include 'actuals' -- Congressional plus-ups make true cost comparisons impossible. But the trend is clear.

• MYP 1 (June 2000) -- orders 222 aircraft for $8.9 billion, or $40.09 million per copy. Adjusted for inflation based on consumer price index: $49.45 million (2009 dollars)
• MYP 2 (December 2003) -- orders 210 aircraft for $8.6 billion, or $40.95 million per copy. Adjusted for inflation based on consumer price index: $47.65 million (2009 $), a 7.6% decrease
• MYP 3 (September 2010) -- orders 124 aircraft for $5.3 billion, or $42.72 million per copy, a 10.4% decline compared to MYP-2 and 13.6% decline compared to MYP-1

* Boeing MYP contracts exclude government furnished equipment, which includes engines

You don't want to pick up Stephen's math and run with it, because if you do, you'll realize the Navy could replace every Hornet in inventory with a Block II, add an extra squadron of Block IIs to all 11 carrier air wings, add an 11th Carrier Air Wing, and still save money by sticking with SHs and choosing not to buy the Joint Strike Fighter.

Is the Joint Strike Fighter really worth all the extra money? It better be, but I remain unconvinced. It is clear the low number from Boeing explains the large order of 124, compared to the original estimates of ~70 a few years ago.