Handicapping the Queen Elizabeth Race

I have considerable doubt as to whether the British will really sell HMS Queen Elizabeth in 2020. If they do, however, they’ll need a buyer:

• Russia: The Russians are interested in another aircraft carrier, and it’s unlikely that the Russian shipbuilding industry will have produced a vessel of comparable size and capability by 2020. Even if they do, Admiral Kuznetzov will be close to thirty years old; not too long in the tooth for a CV, but of worrisome age given concern about Russia maintenance capacity. The Russians could probably afford Queen Elizabeth, and could undertake any modifications necessary to fly their own carrier aircraft. On the downside, such a purchase would be an express vote of no-confidence in a Russian shipbuilding industry already made nervous by the Mistral acquisition. Moreover, unless Russia-NATO relations warm appreciably in the next ten years, both the British defense establishment and Britain’s NATO allies would freak out over the prospect of a Russia purchase. Odds on Imperatritsa Ekaterina Velikaya: 50-1
• China: Like the Russians, the Chinese will probably be able to afford Queen Elizabeth, and there’s good reason to believe that they’d be interested in acquiring a CV. However, by 2020 indigenous construction may have proceeded to the point that the Chinese won’t believe that they need to bother with foreign acquisition. Integrating Queen Elizabeth into the PLAN would be a pain. The biggest obstacle would be on the other side, however; the USN would go absolutely ape if the British tried to sell QE to the Chinese, and I doubt that the British defense establishment would be terribly enthusiastic, either. Odds on Empress Dowager Cixi: 99-1
• France: France could certainly use a second carrier; recent events have demonstrated the problems associated with even a reliable single carrier fleet. However, I would be deeply surprised if the French government chose not to take advantage of the opportunity to build such a vessel in French yards. Even though QE might fit the bill, I suspect that the French will either go with a French built ship or no second carrier for the foreseeable future. Odds on Carla Bruni (R92): 20-1
• Brazil: In 2020, Sao Paulo will be fifty-seven years old. Refurbishment notwithstanding, that’s really old, and it’s unclear where Brazil intends to acquire a replacement vessel. Brazil has CATOBAR experience, and will presumably at some point decide on a modern carrier-borne fighter/strike aircraft. Brazil also appears to have an interest in expanding its navy. Queen Elizabeth would seem to fit Brazil’s needs perfectly. While it’s possible to envision competition between Brazil and the United Kingdom over South Atlantic sea access, the scenario is somewhat far-fetched. I don’t see why the British defense and foreign policy establishment would object overmuch, or why the United States would try to veto the deal. Odds on Empress Isabel: 3-1
• South Korea: South Korea has a large, modern, and growing navy, and is gaining experience with large flat deck amphibs. Queen Elizabeth would be a substantial step up, but not necessarily an insurmountable one. Of course, if the South Koreans want a carrier they can always build one themselves, but Queen Elizabeth could provide an extremely useful bridge to a domestically built CV force. South Korea could equip QE with F-35s. Much depends, of course, on changes in South Korea’s strategic situation; by 2020 that situation may have changed radically. I can’t imagine why such a sale would be a problem for either the US or the UK. Odds on Empress Myeongsong: 4-1
• India: India represents another obvious potential customer. Queen Elizabeth is going to be a considerably more powerful platform than the refurbished Admiral Gorshkov. However, India is also expects to have two domestically built carriers in service by 2020. Four carriers would be a major commitment for India, so I’m not sure I see them as a potential customer for Queen Elizabeth. On the upside, India and the UK have maintained a procurement relationship that could facilitate the deal. Odds on INS India Gandhi: 15-1
• Japan: In ten years, Japan might well be interested in stepping up to a genuine fleet carrier. It’s gaining experience with large flat deck warships with the Hyuga class. Japan will also probably buy the F-35, giving it a CATOBAR capable aircraft. However, as with France I suspect that the Japanese would rather build a carrier themselves than purchase one from the British. The Japanese constitution would present some difficulty, but objections from either the UK or the US would not likely be a problem. Odds on Empress Michiko: 7-1
• Australia: Australia has increased its naval profile over the past several decades, and appears to continue to believe that the RAN has an important role to play in maintaining order in Oceania/Southeast Asia. The RAN tried to buy HMS Invincible in 1982, a deal that would have been remarkably similar to the proposed Queen Elizabeth sale. However, Queen Elizabeth would be a substantial step forward for the RAN, although it will gain experience with large flat decked warships with the Canberra class. Australia operates the F-18, and is expected to be a customer for the F-35, and so will have the aircraft necessary to operate a (presumably CATOBAR capable) fleet carrier. Finally, Australia obviously has a strong, positive relationship with the United Kingdom. Odds on HMAS Queen Elizabeth: 9-2
• Canada: Canada hasn’t operated a carrier since 1970, and won’t have Australia’s experience with large flat deck amphibs. However, Canada enjoys some of the same advantages as Australia, including operation of the F-18 and the F-35. Canada can probably afford the QE if it wants it, and has a large and growing maritime backyard to worry about. Indeed, Canada might even eschew the catapult upgrade and operate QE as a helicopter carrier, although either Ark Royal or Invincible would probably be a better fit for such a mission. As with Australia, Canada maintains a strong, positive relationship with the UK. Odds on HMCS Queen Elizabeth: 15-1