Maybe the DoD Didn't Whiff as Much as Suggested?

A week ago I suggested that new photos give the impression that the DoD may have whiffed when it came to the discussion of Yuan class submarine production in China in DoDs most recently released Report on PLA military developments (PDF).

The most recent photos however suggest maybe the DoD was more accurate than I gave them credit for.

It is very hard to figure out what is going on, because there are a lot of people calling the submarine in the front of these photos a Type 039B (Yuan class). With all due respect, that is not a Yuan class - that is clearly something completely different and new. If you look behind the submarine in the front of these pictures (click to see larger versions), you will note there is a second submarine in the picture behind it - and that is what appears to be a new Yuan class submarine. The presence of the second submarine suggests the DoD report on PLA Navy submarine activity is accurate - and Yuan class submarine expansion is continuing.

What does this mean? It means that while China is indeed expanding the number of Yuan class submarines in service, China has also already put to sea the next generation of SSK - which raises questions regarding what the rate of construction for SSKs might be in China right now.

If the DoDs latest PLA Navy report claims 4 fielded Yuan class submarines, and the DoD report was written regarding last years developments - then what we see in the background of these pictures is probably the 5th Yuan class submarine. For purposes of review, here are pictures that compared the first three, and here was the 4th. Keep in mind the 4th Yuan was photographed in September of 2008, which would be why it was counted in the 2010 PLA Navy report (which reviews the year 2009).

The DoDs China report claims that as many as 4 Yuan class are already in service (as of the end of 2009). As the first Yuan class entered service in 2006, the rate appears to be 1 per year, and we also know based on visual evidence that each of the 4 is slightly different than the other. With a Yuan now popping up in October 2010, and the 4th Yuan photographed in September 2008, one question might be whether or not a 5th Yuan was produced last year but no photograph was taken. Wuhan has proven in the past to be capable of producing at least 3 SSKs per year, and would appear they recently built at least 2 SSKs at one time.

We do not know what the rate of construction is at Wuhan, and I believe rate of construction of the various Chinese shipyards is a key piece of information missing from DoD reports. Seeing two SSKs, and recognizing they represent two different classes altogether, suggests that the rate of construction of 2 per year is the current rate. If that is the case, and Wuhan is producing 1 Yuan a year - then perhaps China has built 5 Yuan class and started a new class with this Russian looking Kilo sail - Lada hull looking submarine in these pictures.

In the end we know a little and don't know a lot - and the US Navy seems keen on not revealing much regarding what they know. I find this problematic to be honest, because by not spilling the goods on Chinese shipyard activity the US Navy doesn't hold China's lack of transparency in check. Without classified clearance, withholding information on PLA Navy shipyard activity seems to make it very difficult to have a public debate regarding the level of threat China poses at a time when everyone knows China is currently undertaking a major military buildup.

I tend to think the lack of transparency from China, compounded by the lack of transparency by the United States regarding the PLA Navy buildup, undercuts all public arguments regarding the threat China poses. That may be the intentional policy at work, but that policy is pretty hypocritical at a time when Congress is having the US Navy put more carriers and submarines in the Pacific when specifically citing the reason for the Pacific fleet increase to be the rise of China.

So what have we learned? That in the next PLA report for Congress the DoD can safely claim 5 Yuan class submarines and 1 new SSK class of submarines that appears to be heavily influenced by Russian SSK designs. Either way, one thing we can also note is that each new class of Chinese SSKs appears to be getting bigger and more modern - and with those characteristics the one thing we can imply is that they are being built with greater range.

As of right now, based on the best public information, the PLA Navy has 12 Kilo class submarines, 13 Song class submarines, 5 Yuan class submarines, and one of whatever this new class is - for a total of 31 new SSKs acquired since 1995 (15 years). That does not count the 9 unimpressive Ming class (Type 035s) acquired over the same period, although by counting the Ming class it should be noted the rate of construction for SSKs in China is actually 28 SSKs built in China over the last 15 years - a figure that doesn't count the 12 SSKs acquired from Russia.

What troubles me the most though is the growth rate of a Naval force capable of adding 40 new conventional submarines to a fleet over a 15 year period. It seems to me that rapidly expanding the number of submarines is one way to rapidly expand the experience pool of submariners of a nation.