A few weeks ago, Russia dismissed Israeli concerns regarding the sale of P-800 missiles to Syria, and framed the sale in the context of Russian development of the naval base at the Mediterranean port of Tartus. In case you haven't been watching, the port construction activity has been much higher lately and this project appears well funded (currently anyway).
Last week at a conference in Ukraine, Russia's finance minister Kudrin Kudrin said an end to Russia's wait to join the World Trade Organization was imminent. Various news reports claim Russia and the United States have resolved various issues and had made positive commitments on other issues. After 17 years, Russia is on the verge of joining the WTO.
On Monday Reuters reported that Admiral Vladimir Vysotsky expressed concern regarding China's increased activity in the Arctic region. Making clear the Russian position, he said Russia would "not give up a single inch" in the Arctic.
On Wednesday Reuters reported Russia is looking to reopen the naval base in Cam Ranh, Vietnam. Until 2002, the Cam Ranh naval base was Russia's largest naval base outside of Russia.
Finally, there are several news articles noting that Iran is not very happy with their Russian relationship right now, indeed there are notable trends that suggest the support Iran has counted on for years has thawed. Just as the Iranian nuclear program is about to come online, Russia has turned its back, or perhaps simply turned it's attention towards a new deal to develop a nuclear program in Asia.
Put these events in the context of Russia purchasing the Mistral class from France.
There is a lot of interesting analysis that goes into detail that examines the political activity at play from Moscow. All of it is interesting and important, but instead of diving in with my opinions, I would prefer to highlight a few key trends that represent the change we are seeing from Russian political leadership towards the relationship with the United States.
Russia's signal on Iran sends several important signals to the west. Canceling the S-300 deal wasn't the big deal, announcing a Presidential statement that bans virtually all weapon sales to Iran could potentially cost the Russian defense industry at least 10x as much. That is a big deal considering how important military exports are to the Russian defense industry.
Russia sees a positive future for itself and is moving into new markets accordingly. Building a nuclear power plant in Vietnam is one thing, but establishing a new naval base in the South China Sea? Clearly the possibility of offending China does not keep Putin up at night.
Within the context of recent Russian political decisions, the signals suggest Russia sees political value in the positive sum western model of globalization and its associated security arrangement. This will be important to watch, because while Russia continues to have economic growth - the political change would ultimately be designed to encourage foreign investment and development. WTO admittance will have a negative impact on some parts of the Russian economy, but I see real possibility that the Russian economy to emerge post WTO by 2020 to be much more diversified than the primarily energy economy Russia has today.
With these trends we can observe a different Russia emerging this decade than we did emerging in 2000. Competitive? Yes. Adversarial? Not so much towards us anymore, but we will have allies that will feel pressure from the expanding influence of Russia.
No comments:
Post a Comment