As we come upon election day there are exactly zero national races I will be voting on that make a difference. The only national Congressman in my area in a tight race is Scott Murphy, and I don't think he has a chance. His record has so little appeal to his district that he has been unable to run a single campaign commercial based on his record, and he isn't fooling anyone with the negative ads. When the Sienna poll says a Republican is winning by 9 in upstate New York, that means the race is over for the Democrat.
I can't wait to vote tomorrow though, but it is because of New York state races and not the national races. Among the National races to watch, only two are on my radar: Mississippi 4th District - Palazzo vs. Taylor and Maine 1st District - Scontras vs. Pingree.
Gene Taylor is in trouble. Real Clear Politics doesn't have good poll tracking for the race, but it is pretty clear it is a toss-up at this point. Latest internal polling numbers for both sides show a tight race, and the district is heavily Republican - which could hurt Gene Taylor in a year where the wind is blowing away from Democrats.
Gene Taylor has almost singlehandedly kept the Ingalls Shipbuilding division of Northrop-Grumman in the major surface vessel shipbuilding industry post-Katrina. The LPD-17 program in particular has not gone as expected, and it has become vogue to blame the shipbuilder for every problem even if it isn't always the shipbuilders fault. It is because of Gene Taylor that Ingalls was chosen to lead the restart of the DDG-51 class, because if the Navy had their way they would pick Bath every time. I don't know what will happen is Gene Taylor loses, but I do know one thing - Gene Taylor has been the most influential Congressman for the Navy in 21st century - and it can't be good for Ingalls if Gene Taylor loses to Steven Polazzo, although if the Republicans take the Senate then Senator Wicker from Mississippi could end up chairman of the Senate Seapower Subcommittee.
Chellie Pingree is also in trouble. After leading in the polls for most of the campaign season, suddenly she finds herself down in the polls to challenger Dean Scontras. As the district of Bath Iron Works, this district always ends up represented on the Seapower Subcommittee in the HASC. I have tried my best to like Chellie Pingree, but she never left a good impression from me - and in House Seapower Subcommittee hearings has not demonstrated that she knows what the hell she is talking about nearly all the time. The basic problem for me is that she never demonstrated any knowledge at all, giving the impression she didn't care enough to even learn about seapower issues (a bad thing for anyone in that district).
I know very little about Dean Scontras other than he seems to know a lot about green energy. Given the push by the DoD to solve energy cost issues right now, and how the Navy has been a leader in adopting green energy within the Federal Government - he might fit in very well. With that said, I have not seen any evidence he would better represent Bath Iron Works better than Chellie Pingree has, and indeed he may be behind her in terms of a starting place as she at least has some experience to work from.
Both of these races are very close and worth watching as they relate to naval affairs, because they impact the districts of the nations two remaining shipyards capable of producing large surface combatants.
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